Carlos Bolsonaro holds the market's highest implied probability for first place in Santa Catarina's October 4 Senate contest, where voters cast two ballots for two seats, amid a field of 13 registered candidates. The PL ticket pairing him with fellow party nominee Carol de Toni—both formalized at the party's early August convention alongside Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection bid—has consolidated much of the conservative vote, though the dual candidacies create vote-splitting dynamics. August polling from Mapa/JP News shows Bolsonaro, de Toni, and Esperidião Amin (PP) in a technical tie for the top positions, with Bolsonaro edging first-preference shares around 26 percent. This fragmentation, combined with low single-digit support for PT's Décio Lima and other minor contenders, sustains the tight trader consensus around leading names while leaving room for late campaign shifts in turnout or alliances to reorder the finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 55%
Carol de Toni 26%
Esperidião Amin 3.6%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
55%
Carol de Toni
26%
Esperidião Amin
4%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Carol
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 55%
Carol de Toni 26%
Esperidião Amin 3.6%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$1,032 Vol.
55%
Carol de Toni
$1,405 Vol.
26%
Esperidião Amin
$437 Vol.
4%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$693 Vol.
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$367 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$383 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$196 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$337 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$248 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$342 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$390 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$396 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$308 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carlos Bolsonaro holds the market's highest implied probability for first place in Santa Catarina's October 4 Senate contest, where voters cast two ballots for two seats, amid a field of 13 registered candidates. The PL ticket pairing him with fellow party nominee Carol de Toni—both formalized at the party's early August convention alongside Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection bid—has consolidated much of the conservative vote, though the dual candidacies create vote-splitting dynamics. August polling from Mapa/JP News shows Bolsonaro, de Toni, and Esperidião Amin (PP) in a technical tie for the top positions, with Bolsonaro edging first-preference shares around 26 percent. This fragmentation, combined with low single-digit support for PT's Décio Lima and other minor contenders, sustains the tight trader consensus around leading names while leaving room for late campaign shifts in turnout or alliances to reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$6,536End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carlos Bolsonaro holds the market's highest implied probability for first place in Santa Catarina's October 4 Senate contest, where voters cast two ballots for two seats, amid a field of 13 registered candidates. The PL ticket pairing him with fellow party nominee Carol de Toni—both formalized at the party's early August convention alongside Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection bid—has consolidated much of the conservative vote, though the dual candidacies create vote-splitting dynamics. August polling from Mapa/JP News shows Bolsonaro, de Toni, and Esperidião Amin (PP) in a technical tie for the top positions, with Bolsonaro edging first-preference shares around 26 percent. This fragmentation, combined with low single-digit support for PT's Décio Lima and other minor contenders, sustains the tight trader consensus around leading names while leaving room for late campaign shifts in turnout or alliances to reorder the finish.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,536End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Carlos Bolsonaro holds the market's highest implied probability for first place in Santa Catarina's October 4 Senate contest, where voters cast two ballots for two seats, amid a field of 13 registered candidates. The PL ticket pairing him with fellow party nominee Carol de Toni—both formalized at the party's early August convention alongside Governor Jorginho Mello's reelection bid—has consolidated much of the conservative vote, though the dual candidacies create vote-splitting dynamics. August polling from Mapa/JP News shows Bolsonaro, de Toni, and Esperidião Amin (PP) in a technical tie for the top positions, with Bolsonaro edging first-preference shares around 26 percent. This fragmentation, combined with low single-digit support for PT's Décio Lima and other minor contenders, sustains the tight trader consensus around leading names while leaving room for late campaign shifts in turnout or alliances to reorder the finish.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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