Skip to main content
icon for São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics·Main Election

São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner

icon for São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner
Politics·Main Election

São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner

MLSTP 65%

ADI 32%

Basta 1.1%

Nossa Terra 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

MLSTP 65%

ADI 32%

Basta 1.1%

Nossa Terra 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for MLSTP

MLSTP

$2,155 Vol.

65%

icon for ADI

ADI

$2,575 Vol.

32%

icon for Basta

Basta

$145 Vol.

1%

icon for Nossa Terra

Nossa Terra

$145 Vol.

1%

icon for PCD

PCD

$145 Vol.

1%

icon for MCI-PS/PUN

MCI-PS/PUN

$145 Vol.

1%

icon for MDFM

MDFM

$165 Vol.

1%

Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary elections, set for late September 2026, feature the Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe–Social Democratic Party (MLSTP-PSD) as the frontrunner in trader consensus at roughly 62% implied probability, ahead of the Independent Democratic Action (ADI) party. The July 2026 presidential contest, in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova secured re-election in the first round with backing from an MLSTP-PSD coalition, has shifted momentum toward the MLSTP-PSD by demonstrating its ability to consolidate support amid ADI internal divisions. Earlier institutional tensions, including the 2025 dismissal of an ADI prime minister, further weakened the ADI’s cohesion ahead of the legislative vote for the 55-seat National Assembly. Smaller parties such as PCD, MCI-PS/PUN, and Nossa Terra remain marginal in the pricing. The outcome will determine the next prime minister and coalition dynamics in the country’s multi-party system.

Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$5,474
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.São Tomé and Príncipe’s parliamentary elections, set for late September 2026, feature the Movement for the Liberation of São Tomé and Príncipe–Social Democratic Party (MLSTP-PSD) as the frontrunner in trader consensus at roughly 62% implied probability, ahead of the Independent Democratic Action (ADI) party. The July 2026 presidential contest, in which incumbent Carlos Vila Nova secured re-election in the first round with backing from an MLSTP-PSD coalition, has shifted momentum toward the MLSTP-PSD by demonstrating its ability to consolidate support amid ADI internal divisions. Earlier institutional tensions, including the 2025 dismissal of an ADI prime minister, further weakened the ADI’s cohesion ahead of the legislative vote for the 55-seat National Assembly. Smaller parties such as PCD, MCI-PS/PUN, and Nossa Terra remain marginal in the pricing. The outcome will determine the next prime minister and coalition dynamics in the country’s multi-party system.

Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.
Volume
$5,474
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:45 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe are scheduled to take place on September 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of São Tomé and Príncipe as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the São Toméan government.

Related

icon for Will ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?

Will ADI win the second-most seats in the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe parliamentary election?

61%
icon for Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

Will Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

100%
icon for Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

51%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "MLSTP" at 65%, followed by "ADI" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner" is "MLSTP" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ADI" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "São Tomé and Príncipe Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.