Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats support hovering at or below 31 percent, with the latest Verian survey for SVT placing the party at 30.5 percent and Demoskop at 30.2 percent. Earlier SCB data from May recorded 33.9 percent, but subsequent tracking has trended lower amid stable bloc dynamics. The governing right-wing coalition and Sweden Democrats continue to poll in the high 40s combined, limiting any surge for the opposition’s largest party. Traders therefore assign a 76 percent probability to an outcome under 31 percent, reflecting the consistent recent polling average near the threshold with only weeks remaining until the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%?
Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Over/Under 31%?
Over
24% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
24% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats support hovering at or below 31 percent, with the latest Verian survey for SVT placing the party at 30.5 percent and Demoskop at 30.2 percent. Earlier SCB data from May recorded 33.9 percent, but subsequent tracking has trended lower amid stable bloc dynamics. The governing right-wing coalition and Sweden Democrats continue to poll in the high 40s combined, limiting any surge for the opposition’s largest party. Traders therefore assign a 76 percent probability to an outcome under 31 percent, reflecting the consistent recent polling average near the threshold with only weeks remaining until the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Volume
$168End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats support hovering at or below 31 percent, with the latest Verian survey for SVT placing the party at 30.5 percent and Demoskop at 30.2 percent. Earlier SCB data from May recorded 33.9 percent, but subsequent tracking has trended lower amid stable bloc dynamics. The governing right-wing coalition and Sweden Democrats continue to poll in the high 40s combined, limiting any surge for the opposition’s largest party. Traders therefore assign a 76 percent probability to an outcome under 31 percent, reflecting the consistent recent polling average near the threshold with only weeks remaining until the vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$168End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election show Social Democrats support hovering at or below 31 percent, with the latest Verian survey for SVT placing the party at 30.5 percent and Demoskop at 30.2 percent. Earlier SCB data from May recorded 33.9 percent, but subsequent tracking has trended lower amid stable bloc dynamics. The governing right-wing coalition and Sweden Democrats continue to poll in the high 40s combined, limiting any surge for the opposition’s largest party. Traders therefore assign a 76 percent probability to an outcome under 31 percent, reflecting the consistent recent polling average near the threshold with only weeks remaining until the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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