**The 64% probability traders assign to AfD remaining outside any state government in 2026 rests primarily on Germany’s entrenched “firewall” (Brandmauer) and the arithmetic of proportional representation.** All mainstream parties—including the CDU/CSU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz—have formally ruled out coalitions or toleration arrangements with the AfD, whose eastern state branches are classified by domestic intelligence as confirmed right-wing extremist. This forces the party to secure an absolute parliamentary majority on its own to appoint a minister-president. Recent polling ahead of the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election shows AfD at roughly 41%, well ahead of the CDU on 24%, with similar leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Sept 20). Because smaller parties often fall below the 5% threshold, a mid-40s result could translate into a slim majority. Yet analysts note that even these figures leave room for smaller parties to clear the hurdle or for modest polling erosion before election day, keeping an outright majority uncertain. Earlier 2026 contests in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate offer less favorable terrain for the AfD. The firewall has held in prior eastern state elections despite AfD strength, and national surveys indicate broad public opposition to AfD-led governments. While AfD leaders project confidence in governing alone in Saxony-Anhalt and view any breakthrough as momentum for later contests, traders appear to weigh the structural and arithmetic barriers as more decisive through the end of 2026.