Jaques Wagner holds a 72% implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, well ahead of Rui Costa at 9% and a long list of single-digit or lower options. Recent August polling, including Paraná Pesquisas, shows the two PT candidates—incumbent Wagner and former governor Rui Costa—commanding the top spots, with Wagner positioned just behind Costa in consolidated voter intention. This separation underpins trader consensus despite a June federal investigation into Wagner tied to Operation Compliance Zero that prompted his resignation as Senate government leader. The Bahia PT organization’s organizational strength and limited movement in third-place challengers such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel have kept Wagner’s second-place positioning stable ahead of the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 72%
Rui Costa 9.7%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
$10,140 Vol.
$10,140 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
72%
Rui Costa
10%
Carlos Sodré
1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Jaques Wagner 72%
Rui Costa 9.7%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
$10,140 Vol.
$10,140 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$4,579 Vol.
72%
Rui Costa
$2,330 Vol.
10%
Carlos Sodré
$272 Vol.
1%
Professora Delliana
$471 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$265 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$316 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$267 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$387 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$586 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$667 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jaques Wagner holds a 72% implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, well ahead of Rui Costa at 9% and a long list of single-digit or lower options. Recent August polling, including Paraná Pesquisas, shows the two PT candidates—incumbent Wagner and former governor Rui Costa—commanding the top spots, with Wagner positioned just behind Costa in consolidated voter intention. This separation underpins trader consensus despite a June federal investigation into Wagner tied to Operation Compliance Zero that prompted his resignation as Senate government leader. The Bahia PT organization’s organizational strength and limited movement in third-place challengers such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel have kept Wagner’s second-place positioning stable ahead of the first-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$10,140End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jaques Wagner holds a 72% implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, well ahead of Rui Costa at 9% and a long list of single-digit or lower options. Recent August polling, including Paraná Pesquisas, shows the two PT candidates—incumbent Wagner and former governor Rui Costa—commanding the top spots, with Wagner positioned just behind Costa in consolidated voter intention. This separation underpins trader consensus despite a June federal investigation into Wagner tied to Operation Compliance Zero that prompted his resignation as Senate government leader. The Bahia PT organization’s organizational strength and limited movement in third-place challengers such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel have kept Wagner’s second-place positioning stable ahead of the first-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,140End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jaques Wagner holds a 72% implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4, 2026 Senate election, well ahead of Rui Costa at 9% and a long list of single-digit or lower options. Recent August polling, including Paraná Pesquisas, shows the two PT candidates—incumbent Wagner and former governor Rui Costa—commanding the top spots, with Wagner positioned just behind Costa in consolidated voter intention. This separation underpins trader consensus despite a June federal investigation into Wagner tied to Operation Compliance Zero that prompted his resignation as Senate government leader. The Bahia PT organization’s organizational strength and limited movement in third-place challengers such as João Roma and Angelo Coronel have kept Wagner’s second-place positioning stable ahead of the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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