Rui Costa holds the strongest position in Bahia's October 4, 2026 Senate race for the two seats at stake, backed by consistent polling leads in first- and second-preference votes and the PT's established state-level organization. As former governor and current Civil House minister stepping down to run, his candidacy benefits from name recognition and alignment with the state executive under Jerônimo Rodrigues. Fellow PT incumbent Jaques Wagner trails as the likely second-place contender, while Republicanos' Angelo Coronel and PL's João Roma register lower support in available surveys. Candidate registration concluded in mid-August, with no major late shifts reported that would alter the current trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% price on Rui Costa finishing first.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 10.1%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Gregorio Gould <1%
$12,760 Vol.
$12,760 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
72%
Jaques Wagner
10%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Rui Costa 72%
Jaques Wagner 10.1%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Gregorio Gould <1%
$12,760 Vol.
$12,760 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Rui Costa
$4,437 Vol.
72%
Jaques Wagner
$2,833 Vol.
10%
Carlos Sodré
$763 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$556 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$629 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$452 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$899 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$730 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$715 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$746 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa holds the strongest position in Bahia's October 4, 2026 Senate race for the two seats at stake, backed by consistent polling leads in first- and second-preference votes and the PT's established state-level organization. As former governor and current Civil House minister stepping down to run, his candidacy benefits from name recognition and alignment with the state executive under Jerônimo Rodrigues. Fellow PT incumbent Jaques Wagner trails as the likely second-place contender, while Republicanos' Angelo Coronel and PL's João Roma register lower support in available surveys. Candidate registration concluded in mid-August, with no major late shifts reported that would alter the current trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% price on Rui Costa finishing first.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$12,760End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Rui Costa holds the strongest position in Bahia's October 4, 2026 Senate race for the two seats at stake, backed by consistent polling leads in first- and second-preference votes and the PT's established state-level organization. As former governor and current Civil House minister stepping down to run, his candidacy benefits from name recognition and alignment with the state executive under Jerônimo Rodrigues. Fellow PT incumbent Jaques Wagner trails as the likely second-place contender, while Republicanos' Angelo Coronel and PL's João Roma register lower support in available surveys. Candidate registration concluded in mid-August, with no major late shifts reported that would alter the current trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% price on Rui Costa finishing first.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$12,760End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rui Costa holds the strongest position in Bahia's October 4, 2026 Senate race for the two seats at stake, backed by consistent polling leads in first- and second-preference votes and the PT's established state-level organization. As former governor and current Civil House minister stepping down to run, his candidacy benefits from name recognition and alignment with the state executive under Jerônimo Rodrigues. Fellow PT incumbent Jaques Wagner trails as the likely second-place contender, while Republicanos' Angelo Coronel and PL's João Roma register lower support in available surveys. Candidate registration concluded in mid-August, with no major late shifts reported that would alter the current trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% price on Rui Costa finishing first.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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