Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% support ahead of the 20 September Berlin state election, projecting roughly 28–31 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus after accounting for the five-percent threshold and seat allocation rules. This range underpins the 30–34 seat outcome as the leading trader consensus. The party has lost ground since its 28.2% result in 2023 amid voter fatigue with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, a leadership change to candidate Stefan Evers, and competition from Die Linke (currently polling 19–22%), the AfD, and the Greens. No two-party alliance appears likely to secure a majority, keeping coalition math fluid and limiting upside for the CDU. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or preference among undecided voters could still adjust final seat totals within the 25–34 band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
30-34 52%
25-29 35%
35-39 13%
45+ 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<25
1%
25-29
35%
30-34
52%
35-39
13%
40-44
2%
45+
3%
30-34 52%
25-29 35%
35-39 13%
45+ 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<25
$572 Vol.
1%
25-29
$2,751 Vol.
35%
30-34
$1,284 Vol.
52%
35-39
$2,432 Vol.
13%
40-44
$511 Vol.
2%
45+
$1,484 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% support ahead of the 20 September Berlin state election, projecting roughly 28–31 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus after accounting for the five-percent threshold and seat allocation rules. This range underpins the 30–34 seat outcome as the leading trader consensus. The party has lost ground since its 28.2% result in 2023 amid voter fatigue with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, a leadership change to candidate Stefan Evers, and competition from Die Linke (currently polling 19–22%), the AfD, and the Greens. No two-party alliance appears likely to secure a majority, keeping coalition math fluid and limiting upside for the CDU. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or preference among undecided voters could still adjust final seat totals within the 25–34 band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Volume
$9,034End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% support ahead of the 20 September Berlin state election, projecting roughly 28–31 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus after accounting for the five-percent threshold and seat allocation rules. This range underpins the 30–34 seat outcome as the leading trader consensus. The party has lost ground since its 28.2% result in 2023 amid voter fatigue with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, a leadership change to candidate Stefan Evers, and competition from Die Linke (currently polling 19–22%), the AfD, and the Greens. No two-party alliance appears likely to secure a majority, keeping coalition math fluid and limiting upside for the CDU. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or preference among undecided voters could still adjust final seat totals within the 25–34 band.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$9,034End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the CDU at 18–20% support ahead of the 20 September Berlin state election, projecting roughly 28–31 seats in the 130-seat Abgeordnetenhaus after accounting for the five-percent threshold and seat allocation rules. This range underpins the 30–34 seat outcome as the leading trader consensus. The party has lost ground since its 28.2% result in 2023 amid voter fatigue with the incumbent CDU–SPD coalition, a leadership change to candidate Stefan Evers, and competition from Die Linke (currently polling 19–22%), the AfD, and the Greens. No two-party alliance appears likely to secure a majority, keeping coalition math fluid and limiting upside for the CDU. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or preference among undecided voters could still adjust final seat totals within the 25–34 band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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