Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintain a consistent national polling lead of 7–13 points over Conservatives through August 2026, with support around 42–46% versus 29–35%. This translates into durable advantages in seat-rich regions including Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives remain dominant only in Alberta and the Prairies. The 2025 election delivered Liberals 169 seats to Conservatives’ 144, and recent tracking from Abacus, Liaison, and Nanos shows little movement toward a reversal. Three by-elections scheduled for late August further align with Liberal-leaning ridings. Traders assign 95.3% probability to “No” because no credible path has emerged for Conservatives to overtake Liberals in 338Canada seat projections by year-end. Late shifts could still occur from a major economic shock, leadership change, or sharp swing in Quebec or Ontario vote intention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintain a consistent national polling lead of 7–13 points over Conservatives through August 2026, with support around 42–46% versus 29–35%. This translates into durable advantages in seat-rich regions including Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives remain dominant only in Alberta and the Prairies. The 2025 election delivered Liberals 169 seats to Conservatives’ 144, and recent tracking from Abacus, Liaison, and Nanos shows little movement toward a reversal. Three by-elections scheduled for late August further align with Liberal-leaning ridings. Traders assign 95.3% probability to “No” because no credible path has emerged for Conservatives to overtake Liberals in 338Canada seat projections by year-end. Late shifts could still occur from a major economic shock, leadership change, or sharp swing in Quebec or Ontario vote intention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$8,095End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintain a consistent national polling lead of 7–13 points over Conservatives through August 2026, with support around 42–46% versus 29–35%. This translates into durable advantages in seat-rich regions including Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives remain dominant only in Alberta and the Prairies. The 2025 election delivered Liberals 169 seats to Conservatives’ 144, and recent tracking from Abacus, Liaison, and Nanos shows little movement toward a reversal. Three by-elections scheduled for late August further align with Liberal-leaning ridings. Traders assign 95.3% probability to “No” because no credible path has emerged for Conservatives to overtake Liberals in 338Canada seat projections by year-end. Late shifts could still occur from a major economic shock, leadership change, or sharp swing in Quebec or Ontario vote intention.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Volume
$8,095End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Liberals under Prime Minister Mark Carney maintain a consistent national polling lead of 7–13 points over Conservatives through August 2026, with support around 42–46% versus 29–35%. This translates into durable advantages in seat-rich regions including Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives remain dominant only in Alberta and the Prairies. The 2025 election delivered Liberals 169 seats to Conservatives’ 144, and recent tracking from Abacus, Liaison, and Nanos shows little movement toward a reversal. Three by-elections scheduled for late August further align with Liberal-leaning ridings. Traders assign 95.3% probability to “No” because no credible path has emerged for Conservatives to overtake Liberals in 338Canada seat projections by year-end. Late shifts could still occur from a major economic shock, leadership change, or sharp swing in Quebec or Ontario vote intention.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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