The near-even market-implied probabilities for a 0.2% or 0.3% August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading underscore trader uncertainty around the persistence of underlying price pressures following July’s 0.2% increase that aligned with consensus. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the core index holding at 3.3% year-over-year, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with services and shelter components providing ongoing support while goods prices offered limited offset. Broader context includes elevated personal income growth and resilient consumer spending that could sustain momentum, alongside softer CPI and PPI prints earlier in the summer that had tempered some expectations. The September 30 release will provide the final inflation signal before year-end policy deliberations, with outcomes hinging on whether monthly gains reaccelerate or stabilize near the prior month’s pace.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3% 36%
0.2% 35%
0.4% 13%
0.1% 10.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
5%
0.0%
22%
0.1%
8%
0.2%
35%
0.3%
36%
0.4%
13%
0.5%+
3%
0.3% 36%
0.2% 35%
0.4% 13%
0.1% 10.5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
$65 Vol.
5%
0.0%
$55 Vol.
22%
0.1%
$199 Vol.
8%
0.2%
$2,974 Vol.
35%
0.3%
$630 Vol.
36%
0.4%
$204 Vol.
13%
0.5%+
$146 Vol.
3%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The near-even market-implied probabilities for a 0.2% or 0.3% August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading underscore trader uncertainty around the persistence of underlying price pressures following July’s 0.2% increase that aligned with consensus. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the core index holding at 3.3% year-over-year, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with services and shelter components providing ongoing support while goods prices offered limited offset. Broader context includes elevated personal income growth and resilient consumer spending that could sustain momentum, alongside softer CPI and PPI prints earlier in the summer that had tempered some expectations. The September 30 release will provide the final inflation signal before year-end policy deliberations, with outcomes hinging on whether monthly gains reaccelerate or stabilize near the prior month’s pace.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$4,273End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The near-even market-implied probabilities for a 0.2% or 0.3% August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading underscore trader uncertainty around the persistence of underlying price pressures following July’s 0.2% increase that aligned with consensus. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the core index holding at 3.3% year-over-year, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with services and shelter components providing ongoing support while goods prices offered limited offset. Broader context includes elevated personal income growth and resilient consumer spending that could sustain momentum, alongside softer CPI and PPI prints earlier in the summer that had tempered some expectations. The September 30 release will provide the final inflation signal before year-end policy deliberations, with outcomes hinging on whether monthly gains reaccelerate or stabilize near the prior month’s pace.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$4,273End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The near-even market-implied probabilities for a 0.2% or 0.3% August 2026 core PCE month-over-month reading underscore trader uncertainty around the persistence of underlying price pressures following July’s 0.2% increase that aligned with consensus. Recent Bureau of Economic Analysis data showed the core index holding at 3.3% year-over-year, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with services and shelter components providing ongoing support while goods prices offered limited offset. Broader context includes elevated personal income growth and resilient consumer spending that could sustain momentum, alongside softer CPI and PPI prints earlier in the summer that had tempered some expectations. The September 30 release will provide the final inflation signal before year-end policy deliberations, with outcomes hinging on whether monthly gains reaccelerate or stabilize near the prior month’s pace.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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