Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 30 projects a high near 86°F under partly sunny skies after early morning showers and thunderstorms clear, driven by warm southwesterly flow at 10–15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Morning convection and lingering cloud cover introduce modest uncertainty in peak heating, keeping the most likely outcomes clustered in the mid-to-upper 80s. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 84–87°F bins, as above-average temperatures (versus the 81°F climatological high) depend on the precise timing of clearing and limited moisture return. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine whether readings settle closer to 84–85°F or push into the upper 80s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 30?
84-85°F 35%
86-87°F 31%
82-83°F 18%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
18%
84-85°F
35%
86-87°F
31%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
5%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 35%
86-87°F 31%
82-83°F 18%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
77°F or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$149 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$307 Vol.
3%
82-83°F
$405 Vol.
18%
84-85°F
$415 Vol.
35%
86-87°F
$374 Vol.
31%
88-89°F
$1,128 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$237 Vol.
5%
92-93°F
$52 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$158 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$353 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 30 projects a high near 86°F under partly sunny skies after early morning showers and thunderstorms clear, driven by warm southwesterly flow at 10–15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Morning convection and lingering cloud cover introduce modest uncertainty in peak heating, keeping the most likely outcomes clustered in the mid-to-upper 80s. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 84–87°F bins, as above-average temperatures (versus the 81°F climatological high) depend on the precise timing of clearing and limited moisture return. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine whether readings settle closer to 84–85°F or push into the upper 80s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,705End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 30 projects a high near 86°F under partly sunny skies after early morning showers and thunderstorms clear, driven by warm southwesterly flow at 10–15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Morning convection and lingering cloud cover introduce modest uncertainty in peak heating, keeping the most likely outcomes clustered in the mid-to-upper 80s. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 84–87°F bins, as above-average temperatures (versus the 81°F climatological high) depend on the precise timing of clearing and limited moisture return. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine whether readings settle closer to 84–85°F or push into the upper 80s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,705End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 30 projects a high near 86°F under partly sunny skies after early morning showers and thunderstorms clear, driven by warm southwesterly flow at 10–15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Morning convection and lingering cloud cover introduce modest uncertainty in peak heating, keeping the most likely outcomes clustered in the mid-to-upper 80s. This aligns with trader consensus favoring the 84–87°F bins, as above-average temperatures (versus the 81°F climatological high) depend on the precise timing of clearing and limited moisture return. Updated model runs and afternoon observations will refine whether readings settle closer to 84–85°F or push into the upper 80s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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