Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models places Chicago’s August 29 high in the low 80s, driven by southerly flow advecting mild air under partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Traders favor the 80–83 °F bins because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in maximum temperatures, with cloud cover and the timing of any showers acting as the main variables that could shave a degree or two or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical August 29 averages near 81 °F provide additional context, while the market’s tight distribution across 78–83 °F reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts this close to the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
80-81°F 31%
82-83°F 26%
78-79°F 23%
86-87°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
31%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
9%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 31%
82-83°F 26%
78-79°F 23%
86-87°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
75°F or below
$9 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$36 Vol.
12%
78-79°F
$48 Vol.
23%
80-81°F
$9 Vol.
31%
82-83°F
$171 Vol.
26%
84-85°F
$9 Vol.
9%
86-87°F
$36 Vol.
15%
88-89°F
$9 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$9 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$9 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$9 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models places Chicago’s August 29 high in the low 80s, driven by southerly flow advecting mild air under partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Traders favor the 80–83 °F bins because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in maximum temperatures, with cloud cover and the timing of any showers acting as the main variables that could shave a degree or two or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical August 29 averages near 81 °F provide additional context, while the market’s tight distribution across 78–83 °F reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$358End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models places Chicago’s August 29 high in the low 80s, driven by southerly flow advecting mild air under partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Traders favor the 80–83 °F bins because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in maximum temperatures, with cloud cover and the timing of any showers acting as the main variables that could shave a degree or two or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical August 29 averages near 81 °F provide additional context, while the market’s tight distribution across 78–83 °F reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts this close to the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$358End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and major models places Chicago’s August 29 high in the low 80s, driven by southerly flow advecting mild air under partly to mostly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Traders favor the 80–83 °F bins because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in maximum temperatures, with cloud cover and the timing of any showers acting as the main variables that could shave a degree or two or allow brief clearing to push readings higher. Historical August 29 averages near 81 °F provide additional context, while the market’s tight distribution across 78–83 °F reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts this close to the event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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