A warm, dry air mass dominating southeastern Brazil has driven recent forecasts for São Paulo, producing elevated overnight lows around 20–24 °C on August 29 amid daytime highs near 33–36 °C. This pattern suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling through advection of warmer air and reduced humidity, contrasting with typical August minima near 12–13 °C and explaining why models show little support for readings at or below 13 °C. The closely matched market probabilities for sub-13 °C versus 23 °C-plus outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty over exact wind patterns and cloud cover that could modulate cooling rates, while the heat-wave timing before an expected frontal passage and rainfall around September 1–2 keeps trader focus on whether any brief moderation occurs overnight. Official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources emphasizes the persistence of these conditions through the weekend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 29?
13°C or below 86%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
21°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
86%
14°C
47%
15°C
47%
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
25%
19°C
30%
20°C
30%
21°C
49%
22°C
49%
23°C or higher
2%
13°C or below 86%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
21°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
86%
14°C
$0 Vol.
47%
15°C
$0 Vol.
47%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$0 Vol.
30%
20°C
$0 Vol.
30%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C
$0 Vol.
49%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass dominating southeastern Brazil has driven recent forecasts for São Paulo, producing elevated overnight lows around 20–24 °C on August 29 amid daytime highs near 33–36 °C. This pattern suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling through advection of warmer air and reduced humidity, contrasting with typical August minima near 12–13 °C and explaining why models show little support for readings at or below 13 °C. The closely matched market probabilities for sub-13 °C versus 23 °C-plus outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty over exact wind patterns and cloud cover that could modulate cooling rates, while the heat-wave timing before an expected frontal passage and rainfall around September 1–2 keeps trader focus on whether any brief moderation occurs overnight. Official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources emphasizes the persistence of these conditions through the weekend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A warm, dry air mass dominating southeastern Brazil has driven recent forecasts for São Paulo, producing elevated overnight lows around 20–24 °C on August 29 amid daytime highs near 33–36 °C. This pattern suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling through advection of warmer air and reduced humidity, contrasting with typical August minima near 12–13 °C and explaining why models show little support for readings at or below 13 °C. The closely matched market probabilities for sub-13 °C versus 23 °C-plus outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty over exact wind patterns and cloud cover that could modulate cooling rates, while the heat-wave timing before an expected frontal passage and rainfall around September 1–2 keeps trader focus on whether any brief moderation occurs overnight. Official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources emphasizes the persistence of these conditions through the weekend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...A warm, dry air mass dominating southeastern Brazil has driven recent forecasts for São Paulo, producing elevated overnight lows around 20–24 °C on August 29 amid daytime highs near 33–36 °C. This pattern suppresses nocturnal radiative cooling through advection of warmer air and reduced humidity, contrasting with typical August minima near 12–13 °C and explaining why models show little support for readings at or below 13 °C. The closely matched market probabilities for sub-13 °C versus 23 °C-plus outcomes reflect lingering uncertainty over exact wind patterns and cloud cover that could modulate cooling rates, while the heat-wave timing before an expected frontal passage and rainfall around September 1–2 keeps trader focus on whether any brief moderation occurs overnight. Official guidance from Brazilian meteorological sources emphasizes the persistence of these conditions through the weekend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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