Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate a high near 80°F for Chicago on August 28 under mostly sunny conditions with light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover. Lake Michigan's moderating influence and the absence of strong warm-air advection or frontal systems keep temperatures from exceeding the low 80s, aligning with the market's strong preference for the 82-83°F bin at 55% implied probability. Earlier-week cooling and stable high pressure have reinforced this range, with limited model spread supporting trader consensus around these moderate late-summer values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 28?
82-83°F 55%
84-85°F 22%
80-81°F 14%
86-87°F 7%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
55%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 55%
84-85°F 22%
80-81°F 14%
86-87°F 7%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
55%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
7%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus indicate a high near 80°F for Chicago on August 28 under mostly sunny conditions with light southeast winds and minimal cloud cover. Lake Michigan's moderating influence and the absence of strong warm-air advection or frontal systems keep temperatures from exceeding the low 80s, aligning with the market's strong preference for the 82-83°F bin at 55% implied probability. Earlier-week cooling and stable high pressure have reinforced this range, with limited model spread supporting trader consensus around these moderate late-summer values.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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