Market-implied odds for Guangzhou's August 29 low show notable dispersion, with 21°C or below at 29.5% and several mid-20s outcomes clustered near 25%, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty two days out. Subtropical monsoon conditions dominate, where overnight radiative cooling competes with moisture from the South China Sea and any embedded convective activity; increased cloud cover or rainfall typically compresses the diurnal range and elevates minimum temperatures, while clearer skies allow deeper cooling toward the lower-20s threshold. Ensemble model spreads from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration highlight sensitivity to steering flow and precipitation timing, with historical late-August analogs showing lows most often between 24–27°C under average humidity. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily ahead of updated model runs and observational data expected within 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 29?
21°C or below 51%
24°C 49%
25°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
51%
22°C
19%
23°C
20%
24°C
49%
25°C
49%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
43%
31°C or higher
2%
21°C or below 51%
24°C 49%
25°C 49%
28°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
51%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
49%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
26%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
43%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds for Guangzhou's August 29 low show notable dispersion, with 21°C or below at 29.5% and several mid-20s outcomes clustered near 25%, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty two days out. Subtropical monsoon conditions dominate, where overnight radiative cooling competes with moisture from the South China Sea and any embedded convective activity; increased cloud cover or rainfall typically compresses the diurnal range and elevates minimum temperatures, while clearer skies allow deeper cooling toward the lower-20s threshold. Ensemble model spreads from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration highlight sensitivity to steering flow and precipitation timing, with historical late-August analogs showing lows most often between 24–27°C under average humidity. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily ahead of updated model runs and observational data expected within 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds for Guangzhou's August 29 low show notable dispersion, with 21°C or below at 29.5% and several mid-20s outcomes clustered near 25%, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty two days out. Subtropical monsoon conditions dominate, where overnight radiative cooling competes with moisture from the South China Sea and any embedded convective activity; increased cloud cover or rainfall typically compresses the diurnal range and elevates minimum temperatures, while clearer skies allow deeper cooling toward the lower-20s threshold. Ensemble model spreads from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration highlight sensitivity to steering flow and precipitation timing, with historical late-August analogs showing lows most often between 24–27°C under average humidity. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily ahead of updated model runs and observational data expected within 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for Guangzhou's August 29 low show notable dispersion, with 21°C or below at 29.5% and several mid-20s outcomes clustered near 25%, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty two days out. Subtropical monsoon conditions dominate, where overnight radiative cooling competes with moisture from the South China Sea and any embedded convective activity; increased cloud cover or rainfall typically compresses the diurnal range and elevates minimum temperatures, while clearer skies allow deeper cooling toward the lower-20s threshold. Ensemble model spreads from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration highlight sensitivity to steering flow and precipitation timing, with historical late-August analogs showing lows most often between 24–27°C under average humidity. Traders appear to weight these variables heavily ahead of updated model runs and observational data expected within 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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