Recent forecast updates from European models show an approaching atmospheric front expected to deliver showers and increased cloud cover to Warsaw on August 29, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 14–16 °C. Ensemble guidance indicates moderate spread driven by uncertain precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-12 °C and above-20 °C outcomes alongside elevated probabilities clustered around 13–16 °C. Historical August climatology for the region, with typical overnight lows near 15 °C, further anchors trader assessments as the event window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
11°C or below 94%
21°C or higher 94%
13°C 86%
15°C 86%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
94%
12°C
28%
13°C
86%
14°C
39%
15°C
86%
16°C
27%
17°C
27%
18°C
39%
19°C
2%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
94%
11°C or below 94%
21°C or higher 94%
13°C 86%
15°C 86%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$0 Vol.
86%
14°C
$0 Vol.
39%
15°C
$0 Vol.
86%
16°C
$0 Vol.
27%
17°C
$0 Vol.
27%
18°C
$0 Vol.
39%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from European models show an approaching atmospheric front expected to deliver showers and increased cloud cover to Warsaw on August 29, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 14–16 °C. Ensemble guidance indicates moderate spread driven by uncertain precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-12 °C and above-20 °C outcomes alongside elevated probabilities clustered around 13–16 °C. Historical August climatology for the region, with typical overnight lows near 15 °C, further anchors trader assessments as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast updates from European models show an approaching atmospheric front expected to deliver showers and increased cloud cover to Warsaw on August 29, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 14–16 °C. Ensemble guidance indicates moderate spread driven by uncertain precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-12 °C and above-20 °C outcomes alongside elevated probabilities clustered around 13–16 °C. Historical August climatology for the region, with typical overnight lows near 15 °C, further anchors trader assessments as the event window narrows.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast updates from European models show an approaching atmospheric front expected to deliver showers and increased cloud cover to Warsaw on August 29, limiting nighttime radiative cooling and supporting minimum temperatures near 14–16 °C. Ensemble guidance indicates moderate spread driven by uncertain precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which explains the near-even market-implied odds between sub-12 °C and above-20 °C outcomes alongside elevated probabilities clustered around 13–16 °C. Historical August climatology for the region, with typical overnight lows near 15 °C, further anchors trader assessments as the event window narrows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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