Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs places Warsaw’s minimum temperature on August 28 in the 13–16 °C range, with clear to partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly winds, and surface high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling overnight. Dew points near 10–12 °C and limited boundary-layer mixing cap sharper drops, while any increase in high cloud cover or stronger advection could raise the low by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima near 15 °C, providing context for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across adjacent temperature bins. Updated model guidance through the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
17°C 85%
18°C 81%
11°C 47%
9°C or below 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
46%
10°C
44%
11°C
47%
12°C
46%
13°C
45%
14°C
45%
15°C
44%
16°C
45%
17°C
85%
18°C
81%
19°C or higher
16%
17°C 85%
18°C 81%
11°C 47%
9°C or below 46%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
46%
10°C
$0 Vol.
44%
11°C
$0 Vol.
47%
12°C
$0 Vol.
46%
13°C
$0 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
44%
16°C
$0 Vol.
45%
17°C
$22 Vol.
85%
18°C
$22 Vol.
81%
19°C or higher
$22 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs places Warsaw’s minimum temperature on August 28 in the 13–16 °C range, with clear to partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly winds, and surface high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling overnight. Dew points near 10–12 °C and limited boundary-layer mixing cap sharper drops, while any increase in high cloud cover or stronger advection could raise the low by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima near 15 °C, providing context for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across adjacent temperature bins. Updated model guidance through the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs places Warsaw’s minimum temperature on August 28 in the 13–16 °C range, with clear to partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly winds, and surface high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling overnight. Dew points near 10–12 °C and limited boundary-layer mixing cap sharper drops, while any increase in high cloud cover or stronger advection could raise the low by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima near 15 °C, providing context for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across adjacent temperature bins. Updated model guidance through the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$65End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs places Warsaw’s minimum temperature on August 28 in the 13–16 °C range, with clear to partly cloudy skies, light southeasterly winds, and surface high pressure favoring modest radiative cooling overnight. Dew points near 10–12 °C and limited boundary-layer mixing cap sharper drops, while any increase in high cloud cover or stronger advection could raise the low by 1–2 °C. Historical August climatology shows typical overnight minima near 15 °C, providing context for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across adjacent temperature bins. Updated model guidance through the next 48 hours will refine the precise minimum ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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