Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and local ensembles point to overnight lows in Cape Town on August 29 near 11–13 °C under moderate southerly flow and variable cloud cover, keeping radiative cooling limited. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those mid-range outcomes while the elevated probability on 17 °C or higher reflects the chance of persistent stratus or lighter winds reducing overnight temperature drops. Conversely, the notable share on 7 °C or below captures the tail risk of clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling, which can occur when high pressure strengthens over the interior. The Benguela Current continues to moderate extremes relative to historical August minima near 8 °C, but short-term shifts in marine layer depth and wind direction remain the key variables that will determine the final recorded low at the official station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
17°C or higher 59%
7°C or below 49%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
7°C or below
49%
8°C
20%
9°C
20%
10°C
49%
11°C
49%
12°C
27%
13°C
27%
14°C
49%
15°C
49%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
59%
17°C or higher 59%
7°C or below 49%
10°C 49%
11°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
8°C
$0 Vol.
20%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
49%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and local ensembles point to overnight lows in Cape Town on August 29 near 11–13 °C under moderate southerly flow and variable cloud cover, keeping radiative cooling limited. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those mid-range outcomes while the elevated probability on 17 °C or higher reflects the chance of persistent stratus or lighter winds reducing overnight temperature drops. Conversely, the notable share on 7 °C or below captures the tail risk of clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling, which can occur when high pressure strengthens over the interior. The Benguela Current continues to moderate extremes relative to historical August minima near 8 °C, but short-term shifts in marine layer depth and wind direction remain the key variables that will determine the final recorded low at the official station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and local ensembles point to overnight lows in Cape Town on August 29 near 11–13 °C under moderate southerly flow and variable cloud cover, keeping radiative cooling limited. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those mid-range outcomes while the elevated probability on 17 °C or higher reflects the chance of persistent stratus or lighter winds reducing overnight temperature drops. Conversely, the notable share on 7 °C or below captures the tail risk of clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling, which can occur when high pressure strengthens over the interior. The Benguela Current continues to moderate extremes relative to historical August minima near 8 °C, but short-term shifts in marine layer depth and wind direction remain the key variables that will determine the final recorded low at the official station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from sources including the Met Office and local ensembles point to overnight lows in Cape Town on August 29 near 11–13 °C under moderate southerly flow and variable cloud cover, keeping radiative cooling limited. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around those mid-range outcomes while the elevated probability on 17 °C or higher reflects the chance of persistent stratus or lighter winds reducing overnight temperature drops. Conversely, the notable share on 7 °C or below captures the tail risk of clearer skies and stronger radiational cooling, which can occur when high pressure strengthens over the interior. The Benguela Current continues to moderate extremes relative to historical August minima near 8 °C, but short-term shifts in marine layer depth and wind direction remain the key variables that will determine the final recorded low at the official station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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