Current model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles indicates a Friday minimum near 12°C in Cape Town, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly to northwesterly winds overnight, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup favors values clustered between 10–13°C, with 11°C edging the market at 47% implied probability amid tight spreads across nearby bins. Historical August climatology shows typical minima near 8–10°C, but the current mild pattern—absent any strong cold advection—keeps lower probabilities below 5%. Updated model runs and SAWS guidance over the next 24 hours represent the key data releases that could shift the narrow outcome distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 28?
15°C 84%
11°C 49%
17°C or higher 48%
12°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
7°C or below
9%
8°C
8%
9°C
44%
10°C
46%
11°C
49%
12°C
48%
13°C
44%
14°C
44%
15°C
84%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
48%
15°C 84%
11°C 49%
17°C or higher 48%
12°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
7°C or below
$22 Vol.
9%
8°C
$20 Vol.
8%
9°C
$0 Vol.
44%
10°C
$0 Vol.
46%
11°C
$0 Vol.
49%
12°C
$0 Vol.
48%
13°C
$0 Vol.
44%
14°C
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C
$22 Vol.
84%
16°C
$22 Vol.
1%
17°C or higher
$22 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles indicates a Friday minimum near 12°C in Cape Town, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly to northwesterly winds overnight, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup favors values clustered between 10–13°C, with 11°C edging the market at 47% implied probability amid tight spreads across nearby bins. Historical August climatology shows typical minima near 8–10°C, but the current mild pattern—absent any strong cold advection—keeps lower probabilities below 5%. Updated model runs and SAWS guidance over the next 24 hours represent the key data releases that could shift the narrow outcome distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$107End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles indicates a Friday minimum near 12°C in Cape Town, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly to northwesterly winds overnight, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup favors values clustered between 10–13°C, with 11°C edging the market at 47% implied probability amid tight spreads across nearby bins. Historical August climatology shows typical minima near 8–10°C, but the current mild pattern—absent any strong cold advection—keeps lower probabilities below 5%. Updated model runs and SAWS guidance over the next 24 hours represent the key data releases that could shift the narrow outcome distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$107End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from sources including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles indicates a Friday minimum near 12°C in Cape Town, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly to northwesterly winds overnight, and increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This setup favors values clustered between 10–13°C, with 11°C edging the market at 47% implied probability amid tight spreads across nearby bins. Historical August climatology shows typical minima near 8–10°C, but the current mild pattern—absent any strong cold advection—keeps lower probabilities below 5%. Updated model runs and SAWS guidance over the next 24 hours represent the key data releases that could shift the narrow outcome distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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