Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and regional models indicate an overnight low near 20–21 °C for Istanbul on 29 August, driven by a transient frontal passage bringing brief showers, increased cloud cover, and moderate northerly winds that limit radiative cooling over the Bosphorus and adjacent seas. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated for late summer, supporting a floor around 20 °C unless stronger mixing or clearer skies develop. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range alongside residual model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer humidity, producing closely matched probabilities across the 20–23 °C bins while the elevated 25 °C+ outcome captures scenarios with persistent cloud or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models on 28 August will likely narrow resolution uncertainty ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 29?
25°C or higher 59%
15°C or below 51%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
51%
16°C
22%
17°C
31%
18°C
50%
19°C
50%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
50%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
59%
25°C or higher 59%
15°C or below 51%
18°C 50%
19°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
51%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$0 Vol.
31%
18°C
$0 Vol.
50%
19°C
$0 Vol.
50%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and regional models indicate an overnight low near 20–21 °C for Istanbul on 29 August, driven by a transient frontal passage bringing brief showers, increased cloud cover, and moderate northerly winds that limit radiative cooling over the Bosphorus and adjacent seas. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated for late summer, supporting a floor around 20 °C unless stronger mixing or clearer skies develop. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range alongside residual model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer humidity, producing closely matched probabilities across the 20–23 °C bins while the elevated 25 °C+ outcome captures scenarios with persistent cloud or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models on 28 August will likely narrow resolution uncertainty ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and regional models indicate an overnight low near 20–21 °C for Istanbul on 29 August, driven by a transient frontal passage bringing brief showers, increased cloud cover, and moderate northerly winds that limit radiative cooling over the Bosphorus and adjacent seas. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated for late summer, supporting a floor around 20 °C unless stronger mixing or clearer skies develop. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range alongside residual model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer humidity, producing closely matched probabilities across the 20–23 °C bins while the elevated 25 °C+ outcome captures scenarios with persistent cloud or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models on 28 August will likely narrow resolution uncertainty ahead of the overnight minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from sources including ECMWF and regional models indicate an overnight low near 20–21 °C for Istanbul on 29 August, driven by a transient frontal passage bringing brief showers, increased cloud cover, and moderate northerly winds that limit radiative cooling over the Bosphorus and adjacent seas. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated for late summer, supporting a floor around 20 °C unless stronger mixing or clearer skies develop. Trader consensus reflects this narrow range alongside residual model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer humidity, producing closely matched probabilities across the 20–23 °C bins while the elevated 25 °C+ outcome captures scenarios with persistent cloud or delayed cooling. Updated guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models on 28 August will likely narrow resolution uncertainty ahead of the overnight minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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