The active southwest monsoon, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s recent passage outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives trader sentiment through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwest winds across Metro Manila. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling and compress the diurnal temperature range, favoring minimums near the seasonal average of 25–27 °C for late August. Model consensus shows lows around 26–27 °C on 29 August, yet variability in rainfall intensity, wind mixing, and localized convection creates uncertainty between unusually warm nights (31 °C or higher) and cooler outliers (21 °C or below). Upcoming PAGASA updates and fresh forecast runs will refine the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in the closely matched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
31°C or higher 53%
21°C or below 52%
24°C 50%
23°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
52%
22°C
20%
23°C
49%
24°C
50%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
49%
28°C
49%
29°C
49%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
53%
31°C or higher 53%
21°C or below 52%
24°C 50%
23°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
52%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
49%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$0 Vol.
26%
27°C
$0 Vol.
49%
28°C
$0 Vol.
49%
29°C
$0 Vol.
49%
30°C
$0 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s recent passage outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives trader sentiment through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwest winds across Metro Manila. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling and compress the diurnal temperature range, favoring minimums near the seasonal average of 25–27 °C for late August. Model consensus shows lows around 26–27 °C on 29 August, yet variability in rainfall intensity, wind mixing, and localized convection creates uncertainty between unusually warm nights (31 °C or higher) and cooler outliers (21 °C or below). Upcoming PAGASA updates and fresh forecast runs will refine the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in the closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s recent passage outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives trader sentiment through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwest winds across Metro Manila. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling and compress the diurnal temperature range, favoring minimums near the seasonal average of 25–27 °C for late August. Model consensus shows lows around 26–27 °C on 29 August, yet variability in rainfall intensity, wind mixing, and localized convection creates uncertainty between unusually warm nights (31 °C or higher) and cooler outliers (21 °C or below). Upcoming PAGASA updates and fresh forecast runs will refine the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in the closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...The active southwest monsoon, enhanced by Typhoon Obet’s recent passage outside the Philippine area of responsibility, drives trader sentiment through persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwest winds across Metro Manila. These conditions limit nighttime radiative cooling and compress the diurnal temperature range, favoring minimums near the seasonal average of 25–27 °C for late August. Model consensus shows lows around 26–27 °C on 29 August, yet variability in rainfall intensity, wind mixing, and localized convection creates uncertainty between unusually warm nights (31 °C or higher) and cooler outliers (21 °C or below). Upcoming PAGASA updates and fresh forecast runs will refine the skin-in-the-game consensus reflected in the closely matched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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