Persistent rainfall and associated cloud cover from regional monsoon patterns represent the primary driver keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 26–28°C for Shenzhen’s August 29 minimum. In this subtropical climate, heavy showers and thunderstorms—forecast across multiple models—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range, with recent days showing overnight lows near 26°C amid saturated air masses. Differentiation among the leading outcomes hinges on precise precipitation timing and intensity, which influence how much surface heat is retained versus lost overnight, alongside minor variations in wind and humidity. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the 29th will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 29?
25°C 85%
24°C 57%
27°C 51%
26°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
8%
23°C
19%
24°C
57%
25°C
85%
26°C
47%
27°C
51%
28°C
43%
29°C
24%
30°C
47%
31°C
45%
32°C or higher
1%
25°C 85%
24°C 57%
27°C 51%
26°C 47%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
19%
24°C
$0 Vol.
57%
25°C
$0 Vol.
85%
26°C
$0 Vol.
47%
27°C
$0 Vol.
51%
28°C
$0 Vol.
43%
29°C
$0 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
47%
31°C
$0 Vol.
45%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rainfall and associated cloud cover from regional monsoon patterns represent the primary driver keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 26–28°C for Shenzhen’s August 29 minimum. In this subtropical climate, heavy showers and thunderstorms—forecast across multiple models—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range, with recent days showing overnight lows near 26°C amid saturated air masses. Differentiation among the leading outcomes hinges on precise precipitation timing and intensity, which influence how much surface heat is retained versus lost overnight, alongside minor variations in wind and humidity. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the 29th will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rainfall and associated cloud cover from regional monsoon patterns represent the primary driver keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 26–28°C for Shenzhen’s August 29 minimum. In this subtropical climate, heavy showers and thunderstorms—forecast across multiple models—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range, with recent days showing overnight lows near 26°C amid saturated air masses. Differentiation among the leading outcomes hinges on precise precipitation timing and intensity, which influence how much surface heat is retained versus lost overnight, alongside minor variations in wind and humidity. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the 29th will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rainfall and associated cloud cover from regional monsoon patterns represent the primary driver keeping trader-implied odds tightly clustered around 26–28°C for Shenzhen’s August 29 minimum. In this subtropical climate, heavy showers and thunderstorms—forecast across multiple models—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and compress the diurnal range, with recent days showing overnight lows near 26°C amid saturated air masses. Differentiation among the leading outcomes hinges on precise precipitation timing and intensity, which influence how much surface heat is retained versus lost overnight, alongside minor variations in wind and humidity. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the 29th will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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