Recent numerical weather models and observational trends position 31–32°C as the leading outcomes for Shanghai’s August 30 maximum, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating while maintaining high humidity. Official guidance from regional meteorological centers and ensemble forecasts show limited diurnal temperature range under these conditions, with afternoon convection further moderating peaks near the historical late-August average. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% and 37.5% implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow forecast distribution, as any deviation would require unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and official station reports on the day itself remain the key near-term resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
31°C 53%
32°C 38%
30°C 7%
33°C 4%
NEW
$14,965 Vol.
NEW
$14,965 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
7%
31°C
53%
32°C
38%
33°C
4%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 53%
32°C 38%
30°C 7%
33°C 4%
NEW
$14,965 Vol.
NEW
$14,965 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
26°C or below
$241 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$836 Vol.
1%
29°C
$782 Vol.
1%
30°C
$2,622 Vol.
7%
31°C
$4,368 Vol.
53%
32°C
$2,385 Vol.
38%
33°C
$1,961 Vol.
4%
34°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$422 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$233 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather models and observational trends position 31–32°C as the leading outcomes for Shanghai’s August 30 maximum, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating while maintaining high humidity. Official guidance from regional meteorological centers and ensemble forecasts show limited diurnal temperature range under these conditions, with afternoon convection further moderating peaks near the historical late-August average. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% and 37.5% implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow forecast distribution, as any deviation would require unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and official station reports on the day itself remain the key near-term resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$14,965End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather models and observational trends position 31–32°C as the leading outcomes for Shanghai’s August 30 maximum, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating while maintaining high humidity. Official guidance from regional meteorological centers and ensemble forecasts show limited diurnal temperature range under these conditions, with afternoon convection further moderating peaks near the historical late-August average. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% and 37.5% implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow forecast distribution, as any deviation would require unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and official station reports on the day itself remain the key near-term resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,965End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather models and observational trends position 31–32°C as the leading outcomes for Shanghai’s August 30 maximum, driven by persistent southeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and scattered showers that cap daytime heating while maintaining high humidity. Official guidance from regional meteorological centers and ensemble forecasts show limited diurnal temperature range under these conditions, with afternoon convection further moderating peaks near the historical late-August average. Trader consensus reflected in the 52.5% and 37.5% implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow forecast distribution, as any deviation would require unexpected clearing or stronger subsidence. Updated model runs and official station reports on the day itself remain the key near-term resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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