Recent numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate Shanghai will see a peak temperature of 31–33°C on August 31 under the influence of a subtropical ridge, moderate southerly flow, and partial cloud cover that limits extreme diurnal heating while scattered showers provide additional cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 32°C (47.5%) and 31°C (26.0%), reflecting the consensus range across official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models. With resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at standard stations, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any late adjustments to moisture or wind patterns that could shift the peak by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 31?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 31?
32°C 47%
31°C 26%
33°C 10%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
4%
30°C
9%
31°C
26%
32°C
47%
33°C
10%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 47%
31°C 26%
33°C 10%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
26°C or below
$48 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10 Vol.
1%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$49 Vol.
9%
31°C
$23 Vol.
26%
32°C
$151 Vol.
47%
33°C
$98 Vol.
10%
34°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate Shanghai will see a peak temperature of 31–33°C on August 31 under the influence of a subtropical ridge, moderate southerly flow, and partial cloud cover that limits extreme diurnal heating while scattered showers provide additional cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 32°C (47.5%) and 31°C (26.0%), reflecting the consensus range across official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models. With resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at standard stations, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any late adjustments to moisture or wind patterns that could shift the peak by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$394End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate Shanghai will see a peak temperature of 31–33°C on August 31 under the influence of a subtropical ridge, moderate southerly flow, and partial cloud cover that limits extreme diurnal heating while scattered showers provide additional cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 32°C (47.5%) and 31°C (26.0%), reflecting the consensus range across official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models. With resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at standard stations, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any late adjustments to moisture or wind patterns that could shift the peak by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$394End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate Shanghai will see a peak temperature of 31–33°C on August 31 under the influence of a subtropical ridge, moderate southerly flow, and partial cloud cover that limits extreme diurnal heating while scattered showers provide additional cooling. This aligns with the market's leading implied probabilities for 32°C (47.5%) and 31°C (26.0%), reflecting the consensus range across official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models. With resolution hinging on the official daily maximum recorded at standard stations, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any late adjustments to moisture or wind patterns that could shift the peak by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions