Recent weather model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center and international forecasts points to overnight radiative cooling in Shanghai being limited by high humidity levels above 85% and widespread cloud cover on August 29-30, producing a minimum temperature of 27°C as the most probable outcome. Persistent southeast monsoon flow and scattered showers further moderate temperature drops, consistent with recent daily lows of 27-28°C. Market-implied odds reflect this strong alignment, with only modest probability assigned to 28°C if cloud breaks allow slightly more cooling or to lower readings if heavier precipitation enhances evaporative effects. Updated model runs expected overnight will provide the final data ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 30?
27°C 74%
28°C 14%
25°C 9%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
9%
26°C
3%
27°C
74%
28°C
14%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 74%
28°C 14%
25°C 9%
26°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
9%
26°C
$310 Vol.
3%
27°C
$846 Vol.
74%
28°C
$2,395 Vol.
14%
29°C
$58 Vol.
2%
30°C
$5 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$21 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center and international forecasts points to overnight radiative cooling in Shanghai being limited by high humidity levels above 85% and widespread cloud cover on August 29-30, producing a minimum temperature of 27°C as the most probable outcome. Persistent southeast monsoon flow and scattered showers further moderate temperature drops, consistent with recent daily lows of 27-28°C. Market-implied odds reflect this strong alignment, with only modest probability assigned to 28°C if cloud breaks allow slightly more cooling or to lower readings if heavier precipitation enhances evaporative effects. Updated model runs expected overnight will provide the final data ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$3,318End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center and international forecasts points to overnight radiative cooling in Shanghai being limited by high humidity levels above 85% and widespread cloud cover on August 29-30, producing a minimum temperature of 27°C as the most probable outcome. Persistent southeast monsoon flow and scattered showers further moderate temperature drops, consistent with recent daily lows of 27-28°C. Market-implied odds reflect this strong alignment, with only modest probability assigned to 28°C if cloud breaks allow slightly more cooling or to lower readings if heavier precipitation enhances evaporative effects. Updated model runs expected overnight will provide the final data ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,318End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources including the National Meteorological Center and international forecasts points to overnight radiative cooling in Shanghai being limited by high humidity levels above 85% and widespread cloud cover on August 29-30, producing a minimum temperature of 27°C as the most probable outcome. Persistent southeast monsoon flow and scattered showers further moderate temperature drops, consistent with recent daily lows of 27-28°C. Market-implied odds reflect this strong alignment, with only modest probability assigned to 28°C if cloud breaks allow slightly more cooling or to lower readings if heavier precipitation enhances evaporative effects. Updated model runs expected overnight will provide the final data ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions