Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to clear skies and southerly flow over Warsaw on September 9, supporting a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under high pressure with low humidity and light winds. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passage to moderate temperatures, consistent with late-summer patterns where highs often reach the upper 20s. Slight differences between 29°C and 30°C outcomes hinge on ensemble spread in peak timing, minor variations in afternoon mixing, and exact wind shifts, with traders weighting official station readings that resolve the daily high. Updated runs closer to the date will narrow the narrow spread between these leading probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
29°C 34%
30°C 31%
28°C 15%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
15%
29°C
34%
30°C
31%
31°C
14%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
29°C 34%
30°C 31%
28°C 15%
31°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$4 Vol.
3%
27°C
$6 Vol.
6%
28°C
$135 Vol.
15%
29°C
$889 Vol.
34%
30°C
$117 Vol.
31%
31°C
$138 Vol.
14%
32°C
$8 Vol.
3%
33°C
$7 Vol.
1%
34°C
$171 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$395 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to clear skies and southerly flow over Warsaw on September 9, supporting a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under high pressure with low humidity and light winds. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passage to moderate temperatures, consistent with late-summer patterns where highs often reach the upper 20s. Slight differences between 29°C and 30°C outcomes hinge on ensemble spread in peak timing, minor variations in afternoon mixing, and exact wind shifts, with traders weighting official station readings that resolve the daily high. Updated runs closer to the date will narrow the narrow spread between these leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,871End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to clear skies and southerly flow over Warsaw on September 9, supporting a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under high pressure with low humidity and light winds. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passage to moderate temperatures, consistent with late-summer patterns where highs often reach the upper 20s. Slight differences between 29°C and 30°C outcomes hinge on ensemble spread in peak timing, minor variations in afternoon mixing, and exact wind shifts, with traders weighting official station readings that resolve the daily high. Updated runs closer to the date will narrow the narrow spread between these leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,871End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to clear skies and southerly flow over Warsaw on September 9, supporting a daytime maximum near 29–30°C under high pressure with low humidity and light winds. These conditions favor strong solar heating without significant cloud cover or frontal passage to moderate temperatures, consistent with late-summer patterns where highs often reach the upper 20s. Slight differences between 29°C and 30°C outcomes hinge on ensemble spread in peak timing, minor variations in afternoon mixing, and exact wind shifts, with traders weighting official station readings that resolve the daily high. Updated runs closer to the date will narrow the narrow spread between these leading probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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