**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, ICON, ECMWF) indicate the overnight minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 will most likely fall in the 15–18°C range, aligning with the closely matched Polymarket odds clustered around 15°C (37%), 16°C (32%), and 17°C (28%).** A broad area of high pressure and southerly flow is expected to maintain mild conditions, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. Recent model runs show minor differences in timing of any incoming cloud cover or light winds after midnight, which can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September norms for Warsaw minima hover near 10–14°C, so current guidance reflects above-average warmth driven by the persistent southerly advection. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model updates on September 8 will provide the final refinement before resolution, with traders weighting the consensus range most heavily given the narrow spread in ensemble outputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
21°C or higher 59%
11°C or below 50%
16°C 31%
17°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
50%
12°C
5%
13°C
16%
14°C
15%
15°C
30%
16°C
31%
17°C
29%
18°C
26%
19°C
18%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
59%
21°C or higher 59%
11°C or below 50%
16°C 31%
17°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
$12 Vol.
50%
12°C
$12 Vol.
5%
13°C
$0 Vol.
16%
14°C
$0 Vol.
15%
15°C
$24 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
31%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
18%
20°C
$0 Vol.
16%
21°C or higher
$31 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, ICON, ECMWF) indicate the overnight minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 will most likely fall in the 15–18°C range, aligning with the closely matched Polymarket odds clustered around 15°C (37%), 16°C (32%), and 17°C (28%).**
A broad area of high pressure and southerly flow is expected to maintain mild conditions, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. Recent model runs show minor differences in timing of any incoming cloud cover or light winds after midnight, which can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September norms for Warsaw minima hover near 10–14°C, so current guidance reflects above-average warmth driven by the persistent southerly advection.
Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model updates on September 8 will provide the final refinement before resolution, with traders weighting the consensus range most heavily given the narrow spread in ensemble outputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$79End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, ICON, ECMWF) indicate the overnight minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 will most likely fall in the 15–18°C range, aligning with the closely matched Polymarket odds clustered around 15°C (37%), 16°C (32%), and 17°C (28%).**
A broad area of high pressure and southerly flow is expected to maintain mild conditions, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. Recent model runs show minor differences in timing of any incoming cloud cover or light winds after midnight, which can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September norms for Warsaw minima hover near 10–14°C, so current guidance reflects above-average warmth driven by the persistent southerly advection.
Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model updates on September 8 will provide the final refinement before resolution, with traders weighting the consensus range most heavily given the narrow spread in ensemble outputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$79End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models (GFS, ICON, ECMWF) indicate the overnight minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 9 will most likely fall in the 15–18°C range, aligning with the closely matched Polymarket odds clustered around 15°C (37%), 16°C (32%), and 17°C (28%).** A broad area of high pressure and southerly flow is expected to maintain mild conditions, with clear to partly cloudy skies limiting radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. Recent model runs show minor differences in timing of any incoming cloud cover or light winds after midnight, which can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical September norms for Warsaw minima hover near 10–14°C, so current guidance reflects above-average warmth driven by the persistent southerly advection. Upcoming 00Z and 12Z model updates on September 8 will provide the final refinement before resolution, with traders weighting the consensus range most heavily given the narrow spread in ensemble outputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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