Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 12th congressional district due to its established Republican lean across southern Illinois counties and St. Louis exurbs. Bost secured reelection with 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the 2026 Republican primary. The Democratic nominee, Julie Fortier, has generated no visible polling or fundraising momentum to close the gap. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Republican, aligning with historical margins and the absence of recent catalysts such as redistricting changes, scandals, or national political shifts. Late developments including candidate health issues or an unexpected midterm surge remain the main variables that could still influence the November 3 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
97%
Democratic Party
2%
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,473 Vol.
97%
Democratic Party
$11,112 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 12th congressional district due to its established Republican lean across southern Illinois counties and St. Louis exurbs. Bost secured reelection with 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the 2026 Republican primary. The Democratic nominee, Julie Fortier, has generated no visible polling or fundraising momentum to close the gap. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Republican, aligning with historical margins and the absence of recent catalysts such as redistricting changes, scandals, or national political shifts. Late developments including candidate health issues or an unexpected midterm surge remain the main variables that could still influence the November 3 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,585End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 12th congressional district due to its established Republican lean across southern Illinois counties and St. Louis exurbs. Bost secured reelection with 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the 2026 Republican primary. The Democratic nominee, Julie Fortier, has generated no visible polling or fundraising momentum to close the gap. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Republican, aligning with historical margins and the absence of recent catalysts such as redistricting changes, scandals, or national political shifts. Late developments including candidate health issues or an unexpected midterm surge remain the main variables that could still influence the November 3 outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,585End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 12th congressional district due to its established Republican lean across southern Illinois counties and St. Louis exurbs. Bost secured reelection with 74 percent of the vote in 2024 and advanced unopposed through the 2026 Republican primary. The Democratic nominee, Julie Fortier, has generated no visible polling or fundraising momentum to close the gap. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as solidly Republican, aligning with historical margins and the absence of recent catalysts such as redistricting changes, scandals, or national political shifts. Late developments including candidate health issues or an unexpected midterm surge remain the main variables that could still influence the November 3 outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions