Nikki Budzinski’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors the strong trader consensus in Illinois’s 13th congressional district. The seat, covering central Illinois areas including Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and eastern St. Louis suburbs, features an even to modestly Democratic partisan voting index and delivered Budzinski an approximately 8-point victory in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following the March 2026 primaries, where Budzinski defeated her challenger by a wide margin and Republican nominee Jeff Wilson secured his party’s nod. Illinois’s current map, drawn under Democratic legislative control, further limits Republican opportunities in this district. A national political environment producing an unusually large Republican wave, a significant late-cycle scandal, or sharply reduced Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon based on historical midterm patterns in comparable seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-13 House Election Winner
IL-13 House Election Winner
$14,868 Vol.
$14,868 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$14,868 Vol.
$14,868 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,108 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$6,761 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nikki Budzinski’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors the strong trader consensus in Illinois’s 13th congressional district. The seat, covering central Illinois areas including Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and eastern St. Louis suburbs, features an even to modestly Democratic partisan voting index and delivered Budzinski an approximately 8-point victory in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following the March 2026 primaries, where Budzinski defeated her challenger by a wide margin and Republican nominee Jeff Wilson secured his party’s nod. Illinois’s current map, drawn under Democratic legislative control, further limits Republican opportunities in this district. A national political environment producing an unusually large Republican wave, a significant late-cycle scandal, or sharply reduced Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon based on historical midterm patterns in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$14,868End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nikki Budzinski’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors the strong trader consensus in Illinois’s 13th congressional district. The seat, covering central Illinois areas including Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and eastern St. Louis suburbs, features an even to modestly Democratic partisan voting index and delivered Budzinski an approximately 8-point victory in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following the March 2026 primaries, where Budzinski defeated her challenger by a wide margin and Republican nominee Jeff Wilson secured his party’s nod. Illinois’s current map, drawn under Democratic legislative control, further limits Republican opportunities in this district. A national political environment producing an unusually large Republican wave, a significant late-cycle scandal, or sharply reduced Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon based on historical midterm patterns in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,868End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nikki Budzinski’s reelection bid as the Democratic incumbent anchors the strong trader consensus in Illinois’s 13th congressional district. The seat, covering central Illinois areas including Springfield, Champaign-Urbana, Decatur, and eastern St. Louis suburbs, features an even to modestly Democratic partisan voting index and delivered Budzinski an approximately 8-point victory in 2024. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic following the March 2026 primaries, where Budzinski defeated her challenger by a wide margin and Republican nominee Jeff Wilson secured his party’s nod. Illinois’s current map, drawn under Democratic legislative control, further limits Republican opportunities in this district. A national political environment producing an unusually large Republican wave, a significant late-cycle scandal, or sharply reduced Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon based on historical midterm patterns in comparable seats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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