Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Republican nominee James Marter. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Underwood’s 2024 reelection margin. The seat’s exurban Chicago footprint and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a pronounced national Republican surge in midterm turnout, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually weak Democratic mobilization in the district’s suburban and rural precincts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-14 House Election Winner
IL-14 House Election Winner
$14,251 Vol.
$14,251 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$14,251 Vol.
$14,251 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,509 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$9,742 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Republican nominee James Marter. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Underwood’s 2024 reelection margin. The seat’s exurban Chicago footprint and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a pronounced national Republican surge in midterm turnout, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually weak Democratic mobilization in the district’s suburban and rural precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$14,251End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Republican nominee James Marter. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Underwood’s 2024 reelection margin. The seat’s exurban Chicago footprint and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a pronounced national Republican surge in midterm turnout, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually weak Democratic mobilization in the district’s suburban and rural precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,251End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lauren Underwood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 14th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Republican nominee James Marter. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district’s D+3 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Underwood’s 2024 reelection margin. The seat’s exurban Chicago footprint and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus reflected in current market pricing. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a pronounced national Republican surge in midterm turnout, a significant scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually weak Democratic mobilization in the district’s suburban and rural precincts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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