Illinois's 15th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, covering rural central Illinois areas including portions of the Champaign-Urbana region and Quincy. Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who won a four-way Democratic primary, in the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voting history where Republicans have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. This positioning underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Republican outcome. A late-breaking scandal affecting Miller or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm environment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability developments at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-15 House Election Winner
IL-15 House Election Winner
$37,426 Vol.
$37,426 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$37,426 Vol.
$37,426 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,352 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$18,074 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 15th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, covering rural central Illinois areas including portions of the Champaign-Urbana region and Quincy. Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who won a four-way Democratic primary, in the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voting history where Republicans have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. This positioning underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Republican outcome. A late-breaking scandal affecting Miller or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm environment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability developments at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$37,426End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 15th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, covering rural central Illinois areas including portions of the Champaign-Urbana region and Quincy. Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who won a four-way Democratic primary, in the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voting history where Republicans have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. This positioning underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Republican outcome. A late-breaking scandal affecting Miller or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm environment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability developments at this stage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$37,426End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 15th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+20, covering rural central Illinois areas including portions of the Champaign-Urbana region and Quincy. Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 73 percent of the vote against two challengers and faces Democrat Jennifer Todd, who won a four-way Democratic primary, in the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ uniformly rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voting history where Republicans have prevailed by wide margins in recent cycles. This positioning underpins the market's heavy weighting toward the Republican outcome. A late-breaking scandal affecting Miller or an unusually strong national Democratic midterm environment could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability developments at this stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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