Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district race, an R+11 seat covering rural northern counties, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 93% implied probability of victory. LaHood’s strong fundraising edge, unopposed primary path, and established name recognition in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins in recent statewide contests underpin the consensus. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Paul Nolley faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment where the district’s partisan baseline has remained stable. Late shifts could occur from a broader national Democratic wave, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$34,393 Vol.
$34,393 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$34,393 Vol.
$34,393 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,462 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$20,931 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district race, an R+11 seat covering rural northern counties, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 93% implied probability of victory. LaHood’s strong fundraising edge, unopposed primary path, and established name recognition in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins in recent statewide contests underpin the consensus. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Paul Nolley faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment where the district’s partisan baseline has remained stable. Late shifts could occur from a broader national Democratic wave, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,393End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district race, an R+11 seat covering rural northern counties, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 93% implied probability of victory. LaHood’s strong fundraising edge, unopposed primary path, and established name recognition in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins in recent statewide contests underpin the consensus. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Paul Nolley faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment where the district’s partisan baseline has remained stable. Late shifts could occur from a broader national Democratic wave, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,393End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in Illinois’s 16th congressional district race, an R+11 seat covering rural northern counties, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 93% implied probability of victory. LaHood’s strong fundraising edge, unopposed primary path, and established name recognition in a district that has favored Republicans by double-digit margins in recent statewide contests underpin the consensus. Independent ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and others classify the contest as Solid or Safe Republican. Democratic nominee Paul Nolley faces structural headwinds in a low-turnout midterm environment where the district’s partisan baseline has remained stable. Late shifts could occur from a broader national Democratic wave, unforeseen candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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