Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the retirement of longtime Senator Dick Durbin have shaped the 2026 Senate race, where Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary with backing from Governor J.B. Pritzker and key party organizations. Stratton faces Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns and the absence of Republican Senate wins in Illinois since 2010. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Stratton overwhelming probability of victory in the November general election. Late developments such as significant candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, though none have materialized to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$31,601 Vol.
$31,601 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
96%
Don Tracy (R)
4%
$31,601 Vol.
$31,601 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Juliana Stratton (D)
$16,652 Vol.
96%
Don Tracy (R)
$14,949 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the retirement of longtime Senator Dick Durbin have shaped the 2026 Senate race, where Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary with backing from Governor J.B. Pritzker and key party organizations. Stratton faces Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns and the absence of Republican Senate wins in Illinois since 2010. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Stratton overwhelming probability of victory in the November general election. Late developments such as significant candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, though none have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$31,601End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the retirement of longtime Senator Dick Durbin have shaped the 2026 Senate race, where Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary with backing from Governor J.B. Pritzker and key party organizations. Stratton faces Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns and the absence of Republican Senate wins in Illinois since 2010. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Stratton overwhelming probability of victory in the November general election. Late developments such as significant candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, though none have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$31,601End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's deep Democratic lean and the retirement of longtime Senator Dick Durbin have shaped the 2026 Senate race, where Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary with backing from Governor J.B. Pritzker and key party organizations. Stratton faces Republican nominee Don Tracy, a former state party chair who prevailed in a fragmented GOP primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the state's recent voting patterns and the absence of Republican Senate wins in Illinois since 2010. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns Stratton overwhelming probability of victory in the November general election. Late developments such as significant candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or unexpected national shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, though none have materialized to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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