**Trader consensus strongly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7, 2026 (94% implied probability), well ahead of nearby outcomes like 10–12°C or lower.** This positioning aligns with recent observed minimums at local stations (e.g., 9.6–13.9°C in early September) and expectations for typical spring nocturnal cooling under clear skies. However, multiple real-time forecasts from sources including WeatherBug, WindBorne, Yr.no, and others indicate an overnight low closer to 16–17°C (around 62–63°F) due to light winds, high pressure, and minimal cloud cover on the day. The South African Weather Service and global models show stable conditions with daytime highs near 23–28°C and no significant cold advection. A realistic challenge to the 13°C outcome would require stronger radiative cooling, a wind shift introducing cooler maritime air, or model revisions showing unexpected drops—factors that could be clarified by updated SAWS observations or late-day forecast runs before market resolution. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these variables amid inherent forecast uncertainty in short-term temperature minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7?
13°C 95%
10°C 25%
11°C 23%
12°C 20%
$1,479 Vol.
$1,479 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
10%
10°C
25%
11°C
23%
12°C
20%
13°C
95%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
13°C 95%
10°C 25%
11°C 23%
12°C 20%
$1,479 Vol.
$1,479 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
10%
10°C
$25 Vol.
25%
11°C
$25 Vol.
23%
12°C
$73 Vol.
20%
13°C
$562 Vol.
95%
14°C
$221 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7, 2026 (94% implied probability), well ahead of nearby outcomes like 10–12°C or lower.**
This positioning aligns with recent observed minimums at local stations (e.g., 9.6–13.9°C in early September) and expectations for typical spring nocturnal cooling under clear skies. However, multiple real-time forecasts from sources including WeatherBug, WindBorne, Yr.no, and others indicate an overnight low closer to 16–17°C (around 62–63°F) due to light winds, high pressure, and minimal cloud cover on the day.
The South African Weather Service and global models show stable conditions with daytime highs near 23–28°C and no significant cold advection. A realistic challenge to the 13°C outcome would require stronger radiative cooling, a wind shift introducing cooler maritime air, or model revisions showing unexpected drops—factors that could be clarified by updated SAWS observations or late-day forecast runs before market resolution. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these variables amid inherent forecast uncertainty in short-term temperature minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,479End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7, 2026 (94% implied probability), well ahead of nearby outcomes like 10–12°C or lower.**
This positioning aligns with recent observed minimums at local stations (e.g., 9.6–13.9°C in early September) and expectations for typical spring nocturnal cooling under clear skies. However, multiple real-time forecasts from sources including WeatherBug, WindBorne, Yr.no, and others indicate an overnight low closer to 16–17°C (around 62–63°F) due to light winds, high pressure, and minimal cloud cover on the day.
The South African Weather Service and global models show stable conditions with daytime highs near 23–28°C and no significant cold advection. A realistic challenge to the 13°C outcome would require stronger radiative cooling, a wind shift introducing cooler maritime air, or model revisions showing unexpected drops—factors that could be clarified by updated SAWS observations or late-day forecast runs before market resolution. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these variables amid inherent forecast uncertainty in short-term temperature minima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,479End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 13°C as the lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 7, 2026 (94% implied probability), well ahead of nearby outcomes like 10–12°C or lower.** This positioning aligns with recent observed minimums at local stations (e.g., 9.6–13.9°C in early September) and expectations for typical spring nocturnal cooling under clear skies. However, multiple real-time forecasts from sources including WeatherBug, WindBorne, Yr.no, and others indicate an overnight low closer to 16–17°C (around 62–63°F) due to light winds, high pressure, and minimal cloud cover on the day. The South African Weather Service and global models show stable conditions with daytime highs near 23–28°C and no significant cold advection. A realistic challenge to the 13°C outcome would require stronger radiative cooling, a wind shift introducing cooler maritime air, or model revisions showing unexpected drops—factors that could be clarified by updated SAWS observations or late-day forecast runs before market resolution. The market reflects aggregated trader assessment of these variables amid inherent forecast uncertainty in short-term temperature minima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions