Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and global models like GFS and ECMWF indicate overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies and light northwest winds will drive London’s minimum temperature on September 9 into the 11–13 °C range. A frontal system crossing Tuesday brings rain and breezy conditions that moderate Tuesday night, followed by drier, clearer air allowing greater heat loss Wednesday morning. Historical early-September baselines and urban heat-island buffering support the market’s heavy weighting toward 12 °C (43 % implied probability) and 13 °C (29.5 %), with lower probabilities assigned to 11 °C or below reflecting residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Updated model runs Thursday morning will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on September 9?
Lowest temperature in London on September 9?
12°C 43%
13°C 31%
14°C 29%
16°C or higher 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
6°C or below
2%
7°C
15%
8°C
20%
9°C
20%
10°C
20%
11°C
18%
12°C
43%
13°C
30%
14°C
29%
15°C
21%
16°C or higher
28%
12°C 43%
13°C 31%
14°C 29%
16°C or higher 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
7°C
$0 Vol.
15%
8°C
$0 Vol.
20%
9°C
$0 Vol.
20%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$98 Vol.
18%
12°C
$311 Vol.
43%
13°C
$147 Vol.
30%
14°C
$17 Vol.
29%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and global models like GFS and ECMWF indicate overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies and light northwest winds will drive London’s minimum temperature on September 9 into the 11–13 °C range. A frontal system crossing Tuesday brings rain and breezy conditions that moderate Tuesday night, followed by drier, clearer air allowing greater heat loss Wednesday morning. Historical early-September baselines and urban heat-island buffering support the market’s heavy weighting toward 12 °C (43 % implied probability) and 13 °C (29.5 %), with lower probabilities assigned to 11 °C or below reflecting residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Updated model runs Thursday morning will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$573End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and global models like GFS and ECMWF indicate overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies and light northwest winds will drive London’s minimum temperature on September 9 into the 11–13 °C range. A frontal system crossing Tuesday brings rain and breezy conditions that moderate Tuesday night, followed by drier, clearer air allowing greater heat loss Wednesday morning. Historical early-September baselines and urban heat-island buffering support the market’s heavy weighting toward 12 °C (43 % implied probability) and 13 °C (29.5 %), with lower probabilities assigned to 11 °C or below reflecting residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Updated model runs Thursday morning will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$573End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and global models like GFS and ECMWF indicate overnight radiative cooling under clearing skies and light northwest winds will drive London’s minimum temperature on September 9 into the 11–13 °C range. A frontal system crossing Tuesday brings rain and breezy conditions that moderate Tuesday night, followed by drier, clearer air allowing greater heat loss Wednesday morning. Historical early-September baselines and urban heat-island buffering support the market’s heavy weighting toward 12 °C (43 % implied probability) and 13 °C (29.5 %), with lower probabilities assigned to 11 °C or below reflecting residual model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point depression. Updated model runs Thursday morning will refine these odds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions