Skip to main content
icon for Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Brazil

Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place
Elections·Brazil

Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place

Roseana Sarney 68%

Weverton Rocha 18.2%

Wilson Leite 5.6%

Fufuca 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Roseana Sarney 68%

Weverton Rocha 18.2%

Wilson Leite 5.6%

Fufuca 3.3%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Roseana Sarney

Roseana Sarney

$5,859 Vol.

68%

icon for Weverton Rocha

Weverton Rocha

$1,830 Vol.

18%

icon for Wilson Leite

Wilson Leite

$250 Vol.

6%

icon for Fufuca

Fufuca

$278 Vol.

6%

icon for Cidônio Gonçalves

Cidônio Gonçalves

$233 Vol.

3%

icon for Simplício Araújo

Simplício Araújo

$228 Vol.

3%

icon for Raimundo Moreira

Raimundo Moreira

$249 Vol.

3%

icon for Enilton Rodrigues

Enilton Rodrigues

$148 Vol.

2%

icon for Eliziane Gama

Eliziane Gama

$248 Vol.

2%

icon for Dr. Hilton Gonçalo

Dr. Hilton Gonçalo

$253 Vol.

2%

icon for Lahesio Bonfim

Lahesio Bonfim

$239 Vol.

1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Roseana Sarney leads the Maranhão Senate race for first place with strong trader consensus, driven by consistent polling advantages of 21–26% in recent surveys from institutes such as IPPI, Real Time Big Data, and Véritas, reflecting her high name recognition as a four-time former governor and daughter of ex-President José Sarney. Her July 2026 candidacy announcement and formal MDB convention launch, backed by the Orleans Brandão gubernatorial ticket, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. Incumbent Weverton Rocha trails in second with lower single-digit to mid-teen support in the same polls, while names such as André Fufuca, Lahesio Bonfim, Duarte Júnior, and Eliziane Gama remain further back in a fragmented field of 11 registered candidates. Recent polling trends and alliance structures continue to shape the implied probabilities without major late shifts.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,814
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Roseana Sarney leads the Maranhão Senate race for first place with strong trader consensus, driven by consistent polling advantages of 21–26% in recent surveys from institutes such as IPPI, Real Time Big Data, and Véritas, reflecting her high name recognition as a four-time former governor and daughter of ex-President José Sarney. Her July 2026 candidacy announcement and formal MDB convention launch, backed by the Orleans Brandão gubernatorial ticket, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the October 4 vote. Incumbent Weverton Rocha trails in second with lower single-digit to mid-teen support in the same polls, while names such as André Fufuca, Lahesio Bonfim, Duarte Júnior, and Eliziane Gama remain further back in a fragmented field of 11 registered candidates. Recent polling trends and alliance structures continue to shape the implied probabilities without major late shifts.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,814
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Fufuca win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?

Will Fufuca win the second-most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?

31%
icon for Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

Will Marília Arraes win the most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

68%
icon for Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?

Will Mauro Mendes win the most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?

66%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Roseana Sarney" at 68%, followed by "Weverton Rocha" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Roseana Sarney" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Weverton Rocha" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Maranhão Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.