Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, benefits from a district with a consistent Democratic lean in the affluent western Minneapolis suburbs and strong ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D). Morrison secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the August 11 primary after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican Tyler Bass emerged from a competitive GOP primary. The combination of incumbency advantage, suburban voter trends favoring Democrats since 2016, and the absence of major recent disruptions has produced trader consensus around a wide Democratic margin. A significant national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp decline in turnout among key suburban blocs could narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMN-03 House Election Winner
MN-03 House Election Winner
$17,231 Vol.
$17,231 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,231 Vol.
$17,231 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$7,709 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$9,522 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, benefits from a district with a consistent Democratic lean in the affluent western Minneapolis suburbs and strong ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D). Morrison secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the August 11 primary after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican Tyler Bass emerged from a competitive GOP primary. The combination of incumbency advantage, suburban voter trends favoring Democrats since 2016, and the absence of major recent disruptions has produced trader consensus around a wide Democratic margin. A significant national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp decline in turnout among key suburban blocs could narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,231End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, benefits from a district with a consistent Democratic lean in the affluent western Minneapolis suburbs and strong ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D). Morrison secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the August 11 primary after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican Tyler Bass emerged from a competitive GOP primary. The combination of incumbency advantage, suburban voter trends favoring Democrats since 2016, and the absence of major recent disruptions has produced trader consensus around a wide Democratic margin. A significant national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp decline in turnout among key suburban blocs could narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,231End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kelly Morrison, the Democratic incumbent, benefits from a district with a consistent Democratic lean in the affluent western Minneapolis suburbs and strong ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report (Solid D) and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe D). Morrison secured the Democratic nomination unopposed in the August 11 primary after winning the open seat in 2024, while Republican Tyler Bass emerged from a competitive GOP primary. The combination of incumbency advantage, suburban voter trends favoring Democrats since 2016, and the absence of major recent disruptions has produced trader consensus around a wide Democratic margin. A significant national Republican wave, unforeseen scandal, or sharp decline in turnout among key suburban blocs could narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions