**Futuro Nazionale (FN), founded in February 2026 by former Lega MEP and army general Roberto Vannacci after his split from Matteo Salvini’s party, has shown rapid growth in polling and organizational strength ahead of Italy’s next general election (due no later than December 2027).** Multiple surveys from June through August 2026 placed FN at 5.9–7.1% and ahead of or level with Lega (typically 5.1–6.0%), marking the first sustained overtakes of the older party by the new nationalist movement. FN has expanded its parliamentary group by attracting lawmakers from Lega, Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia, doubled its local circles, and reached over 100,000 members while emphasizing stricter immigration controls, remigration policies, and sovereigntist positions. Lega has continued a longer-term decline within the governing centre-right coalition, losing ground to its former affiliate on the harder-right flank. This polling trajectory and FN’s organizational momentum underpin traders’ 77.5% implied probability that FN will finish ahead of Lega when votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections?
78% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 22, 2027
78% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 22, 2027
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Futuro Nazionale (FN), founded in February 2026 by former Lega MEP and army general Roberto Vannacci after his split from Matteo Salvini’s party, has shown rapid growth in polling and organizational strength ahead of Italy’s next general election (due no later than December 2027).** Multiple surveys from June through August 2026 placed FN at 5.9–7.1% and ahead of or level with Lega (typically 5.1–6.0%), marking the first sustained overtakes of the older party by the new nationalist movement. FN has expanded its parliamentary group by attracting lawmakers from Lega, Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia, doubled its local circles, and reached over 100,000 members while emphasizing stricter immigration controls, remigration policies, and sovereigntist positions.
Lega has continued a longer-term decline within the governing centre-right coalition, losing ground to its former affiliate on the harder-right flank. This polling trajectory and FN’s organizational momentum underpin traders’ 77.5% implied probability that FN will finish ahead of Lega when votes are cast.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,314End Date
Dec 23, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Futuro Nazionale (FN), founded in February 2026 by former Lega MEP and army general Roberto Vannacci after his split from Matteo Salvini’s party, has shown rapid growth in polling and organizational strength ahead of Italy’s next general election (due no later than December 2027).** Multiple surveys from June through August 2026 placed FN at 5.9–7.1% and ahead of or level with Lega (typically 5.1–6.0%), marking the first sustained overtakes of the older party by the new nationalist movement. FN has expanded its parliamentary group by attracting lawmakers from Lega, Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia, doubled its local circles, and reached over 100,000 members while emphasizing stricter immigration controls, remigration policies, and sovereigntist positions.
Lega has continued a longer-term decline within the governing centre-right coalition, losing ground to its former affiliate on the harder-right flank. This polling trajectory and FN’s organizational momentum underpin traders’ 77.5% implied probability that FN will finish ahead of Lega when votes are cast.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives a greater number of total valid votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only the valid vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.
If either specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. If both specified parties run as members of a joint list together in the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that either specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified parties, or any applicable joint lists, will count for resolution of this market.
If either specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.
If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. If either specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,314End Date
Dec 23, 2027Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Futuro Nazionale (FN), founded in February 2026 by former Lega MEP and army general Roberto Vannacci after his split from Matteo Salvini’s party, has shown rapid growth in polling and organizational strength ahead of Italy’s next general election (due no later than December 2027).** Multiple surveys from June through August 2026 placed FN at 5.9–7.1% and ahead of or level with Lega (typically 5.1–6.0%), marking the first sustained overtakes of the older party by the new nationalist movement. FN has expanded its parliamentary group by attracting lawmakers from Lega, Brothers of Italy, and Forza Italia, doubled its local circles, and reached over 100,000 members while emphasizing stricter immigration controls, remigration policies, and sovereigntist positions. Lega has continued a longer-term decline within the governing centre-right coalition, losing ground to its former affiliate on the harder-right flank. This polling trajectory and FN’s organizational momentum underpin traders’ 77.5% implied probability that FN will finish ahead of Lega when votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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