Jaques Wagner (PT) leads the Polymarket probabilities for second place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate contest at 72%, reflecting consistent polling that places him behind fellow PT figure Rui Costa while ahead of opposition challengers. Recent surveys, including the August IDEIA poll combining first- and second-choice votes, show Costa at 27%, Wagner near 20%, João Roma (PL) at 21%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 16%, underscoring the PT’s structural advantage in the state for the two available seats. A Federal Police operation in June targeting Wagner over alleged ties to Banco Master prompted a modest dip in his support and elevated rejection ratings, yet he retained second position in subsequent July Quaest and Real Time Big Data soundings. Formal candidacies, including Coronel’s move to Republicanos and Roma’s PL alignment with ACM Neto’s gubernatorial bid, have not yet altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Bahia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Jaques Wagner 72%
Rui Costa 7.7%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
$10,130 Vol.
$10,130 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
72%
Rui Costa
6%
Carlos Sodré
1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Angelo Coronel
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Jaques Wagner 72%
Rui Costa 7.7%
Carlos Sodré <1%
Professora Delliana <1%
$10,130 Vol.
$10,130 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jaques Wagner
$4,579 Vol.
72%
Rui Costa
$2,330 Vol.
6%
Carlos Sodré
$272 Vol.
1%
Professora Delliana
$466 Vol.
<1%
Angelo Coronel
$265 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$311 Vol.
<1%
João Roma
$267 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$387 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$586 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$667 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jaques Wagner (PT) leads the Polymarket probabilities for second place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate contest at 72%, reflecting consistent polling that places him behind fellow PT figure Rui Costa while ahead of opposition challengers. Recent surveys, including the August IDEIA poll combining first- and second-choice votes, show Costa at 27%, Wagner near 20%, João Roma (PL) at 21%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 16%, underscoring the PT’s structural advantage in the state for the two available seats. A Federal Police operation in June targeting Wagner over alleged ties to Banco Master prompted a modest dip in his support and elevated rejection ratings, yet he retained second position in subsequent July Quaest and Real Time Big Data soundings. Formal candidacies, including Coronel’s move to Republicanos and Roma’s PL alignment with ACM Neto’s gubernatorial bid, have not yet altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$10,130End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jaques Wagner (PT) leads the Polymarket probabilities for second place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate contest at 72%, reflecting consistent polling that places him behind fellow PT figure Rui Costa while ahead of opposition challengers. Recent surveys, including the August IDEIA poll combining first- and second-choice votes, show Costa at 27%, Wagner near 20%, João Roma (PL) at 21%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 16%, underscoring the PT’s structural advantage in the state for the two available seats. A Federal Police operation in June targeting Wagner over alleged ties to Banco Master prompted a modest dip in his support and elevated rejection ratings, yet he retained second position in subsequent July Quaest and Real Time Big Data soundings. Formal candidacies, including Coronel’s move to Republicanos and Roma’s PL alignment with ACM Neto’s gubernatorial bid, have not yet altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,130End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jaques Wagner (PT) leads the Polymarket probabilities for second place in Bahia’s October 2026 Senate contest at 72%, reflecting consistent polling that places him behind fellow PT figure Rui Costa while ahead of opposition challengers. Recent surveys, including the August IDEIA poll combining first- and second-choice votes, show Costa at 27%, Wagner near 20%, João Roma (PL) at 21%, and Angelo Coronel (Republicanos) at 16%, underscoring the PT’s structural advantage in the state for the two available seats. A Federal Police operation in June targeting Wagner over alleged ties to Banco Master prompted a modest dip in his support and elevated rejection ratings, yet he retained second position in subsequent July Quaest and Real Time Big Data soundings. Formal candidacies, including Coronel’s move to Republicanos and Roma’s PL alignment with ACM Neto’s gubernatorial bid, have not yet altered the frontrunner dynamic ahead of the single-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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