Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European ensembles indicate mostly sunny, stable high-pressure conditions over Ankara's plateau on September 9, with light northerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs clustered around 27–28°C. Recent cooling of 3–5°C from early September peaks has tightened the range, though model runs show minor spread tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for 27°C and 23.5% for 28°C, aligns with this central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers below 26°C or above 29°C, consistent with historical September variability and the short lead time before resolution. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on September 9?
Highest temperature in Ankara on September 9?
27°C 59%
28°C 22%
26°C 15%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C
3%
26°C
15%
27°C
59%
28°C
22%
29°C
4%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 59%
28°C 22%
26°C 15%
29°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
22°C or below
$177 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$175 Vol.
3%
26°C
$201 Vol.
15%
27°C
$873 Vol.
59%
28°C
$568 Vol.
22%
29°C
$178 Vol.
4%
30°C
$339 Vol.
1%
31°C
$314 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$249 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European ensembles indicate mostly sunny, stable high-pressure conditions over Ankara's plateau on September 9, with light northerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs clustered around 27–28°C. Recent cooling of 3–5°C from early September peaks has tightened the range, though model runs show minor spread tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for 27°C and 23.5% for 28°C, aligns with this central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers below 26°C or above 29°C, consistent with historical September variability and the short lead time before resolution. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,074End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European ensembles indicate mostly sunny, stable high-pressure conditions over Ankara's plateau on September 9, with light northerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs clustered around 27–28°C. Recent cooling of 3–5°C from early September peaks has tightened the range, though model runs show minor spread tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for 27°C and 23.5% for 28°C, aligns with this central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers below 26°C or above 29°C, consistent with historical September variability and the short lead time before resolution. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,074End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and European ensembles indicate mostly sunny, stable high-pressure conditions over Ankara's plateau on September 9, with light northerly winds and minimal cloud cover supporting daytime highs clustered around 27–28°C. Recent cooling of 3–5°C from early September peaks has tightened the range, though model runs show minor spread tied to exact wind speeds and boundary-layer mixing. Trader consensus, reflected in the 58.5% implied probability for 27°C and 23.5% for 28°C, aligns with this central tendency while assigning low odds to outliers below 26°C or above 29°C, consistent with historical September variability and the short lead time before resolution. Updated model guidance expected within 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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