Current short-term forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a most probable minimum temperature near 12°C in Ankara on September 9, supported by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure over the Anatolian plateau. The closely matched market-implied odds for extremes below 7°C or at/above 17°C reflect remaining uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer processes: stronger surface inversions or lower dew points could enhance cooling toward single digits, while any increase in cloud cover or wind speed would limit the drop. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 11–14°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler and milder outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 9?
7°C or below 78%
17°C or higher 78%
14°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
7°C or below
78%
8°C
48%
9°C
48%
10°C
32%
11°C
28%
12°C
26%
13°C
48%
14°C
49%
15°C
19%
16°C
49%
17°C or higher
78%
7°C or below 78%
17°C or higher 78%
14°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
78%
8°C
$0 Vol.
48%
9°C
$0 Vol.
48%
10°C
$0 Vol.
32%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
49%
15°C
$0 Vol.
19%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a most probable minimum temperature near 12°C in Ankara on September 9, supported by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure over the Anatolian plateau. The closely matched market-implied odds for extremes below 7°C or at/above 17°C reflect remaining uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer processes: stronger surface inversions or lower dew points could enhance cooling toward single digits, while any increase in cloud cover or wind speed would limit the drop. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 11–14°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler and milder outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-term forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a most probable minimum temperature near 12°C in Ankara on September 9, supported by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure over the Anatolian plateau. The closely matched market-implied odds for extremes below 7°C or at/above 17°C reflect remaining uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer processes: stronger surface inversions or lower dew points could enhance cooling toward single digits, while any increase in cloud cover or wind speed would limit the drop. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 11–14°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler and milder outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-term forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a most probable minimum temperature near 12°C in Ankara on September 9, supported by clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and radiational cooling under high pressure over the Anatolian plateau. The closely matched market-implied odds for extremes below 7°C or at/above 17°C reflect remaining uncertainty in nocturnal boundary-layer processes: stronger surface inversions or lower dew points could enhance cooling toward single digits, while any increase in cloud cover or wind speed would limit the drop. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight lows of 11–14°C, providing context for why traders assign meaningful probability to both cooler and milder outcomes ahead of the next model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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