**Forecast models converge on a daytime high of 20–21 °C for Moscow on September 9, producing the tight 41.5 % / 36.5 % split between those two outcomes.** After a cool start to the week with highs near 14–18 °C, a west-to-southwest flow is advecting milder air, lifting temperatures toward or slightly above the 17.7 °C climatological average. Key uncertainties center on afternoon cloud cover—ranging from partly to mostly cloudy across runs—which modulates surface heating, and on the precise timing of the daily peak under light winds. Ensemble spreads of 1–2 °C arise from these factors plus minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery, keeping 22 °C (10.5 %) in play while rendering cooler or much warmer outcomes far less likely. Updated model cycles and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 9?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 9?
21°C 42%
20°C 37%
22°C 10%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
3%
19°C
8%
20°C
37%
21°C
42%
22°C
10%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
2%
21°C 42%
20°C 37%
22°C 10%
19°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
14°C or below
$170 Vol.
1%
15°C
$170 Vol.
1%
16°C
$95 Vol.
1%
17°C
$28 Vol.
4%
18°C
$10 Vol.
3%
19°C
$5 Vol.
8%
20°C
$63 Vol.
37%
21°C
$246 Vol.
42%
22°C
$207 Vol.
10%
23°C
$216 Vol.
5%
24°C or higher
$170 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models converge on a daytime high of 20–21 °C for Moscow on September 9, producing the tight 41.5 % / 36.5 % split between those two outcomes.** After a cool start to the week with highs near 14–18 °C, a west-to-southwest flow is advecting milder air, lifting temperatures toward or slightly above the 17.7 °C climatological average. Key uncertainties center on afternoon cloud cover—ranging from partly to mostly cloudy across runs—which modulates surface heating, and on the precise timing of the daily peak under light winds. Ensemble spreads of 1–2 °C arise from these factors plus minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery, keeping 22 °C (10.5 %) in play while rendering cooler or much warmer outcomes far less likely. Updated model cycles and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,380End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models converge on a daytime high of 20–21 °C for Moscow on September 9, producing the tight 41.5 % / 36.5 % split between those two outcomes.** After a cool start to the week with highs near 14–18 °C, a west-to-southwest flow is advecting milder air, lifting temperatures toward or slightly above the 17.7 °C climatological average. Key uncertainties center on afternoon cloud cover—ranging from partly to mostly cloudy across runs—which modulates surface heating, and on the precise timing of the daily peak under light winds. Ensemble spreads of 1–2 °C arise from these factors plus minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery, keeping 22 °C (10.5 %) in play while rendering cooler or much warmer outcomes far less likely. Updated model cycles and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,380End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models converge on a daytime high of 20–21 °C for Moscow on September 9, producing the tight 41.5 % / 36.5 % split between those two outcomes.** After a cool start to the week with highs near 14–18 °C, a west-to-southwest flow is advecting milder air, lifting temperatures toward or slightly above the 17.7 °C climatological average. Key uncertainties center on afternoon cloud cover—ranging from partly to mostly cloudy across runs—which modulates surface heating, and on the precise timing of the daily peak under light winds. Ensemble spreads of 1–2 °C arise from these factors plus minor differences in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point recovery, keeping 22 °C (10.5 %) in play while rendering cooler or much warmer outcomes far less likely. Updated model cycles and official briefings in the next 48 hours will narrow the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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