Recent forecast model runs show Moscow overnight lows on September 8–9 ranging from roughly 6–12 °C under variable cloud cover and light winds, producing closely matched market odds near 47 % for 0 °C or below versus 46.5 % for 10 °C or higher. Clear-sky radiative cooling can drop surface temperatures several degrees below air temperature after sunset, while even modest cloud cover or slight southerly advection limits that drop; ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the observed uncertainty around the 7 °C outcome priced at 29.5 %. Historical September 9 minima average 9.2 °C, with the 3.1 °C record illustrating how quickly clear, calm conditions can push readings lower than guidance. Updated model cycles and official observations through September 8 will refine the minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 9?
0°C or below 85%
10°C or higher 85%
3°C 50%
4°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
0°C or below
85%
1°C
49%
2°C
49%
3°C
50%
4°C
50%
5°C
50%
6°C
28%
7°C
29%
8°C
49%
9°C
49%
10°C or higher
85%
0°C or below 85%
10°C or higher 85%
3°C 50%
4°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
0°C or below
$0 Vol.
85%
1°C
$0 Vol.
49%
2°C
$0 Vol.
49%
3°C
$0 Vol.
50%
4°C
$0 Vol.
50%
5°C
$0 Vol.
50%
6°C
$0 Vol.
28%
7°C
$0 Vol.
29%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$0 Vol.
49%
10°C or higher
$0 Vol.
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show Moscow overnight lows on September 8–9 ranging from roughly 6–12 °C under variable cloud cover and light winds, producing closely matched market odds near 47 % for 0 °C or below versus 46.5 % for 10 °C or higher. Clear-sky radiative cooling can drop surface temperatures several degrees below air temperature after sunset, while even modest cloud cover or slight southerly advection limits that drop; ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the observed uncertainty around the 7 °C outcome priced at 29.5 %. Historical September 9 minima average 9.2 °C, with the 3.1 °C record illustrating how quickly clear, calm conditions can push readings lower than guidance. Updated model cycles and official observations through September 8 will refine the minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs show Moscow overnight lows on September 8–9 ranging from roughly 6–12 °C under variable cloud cover and light winds, producing closely matched market odds near 47 % for 0 °C or below versus 46.5 % for 10 °C or higher. Clear-sky radiative cooling can drop surface temperatures several degrees below air temperature after sunset, while even modest cloud cover or slight southerly advection limits that drop; ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the observed uncertainty around the 7 °C outcome priced at 29.5 %. Historical September 9 minima average 9.2 °C, with the 3.1 °C record illustrating how quickly clear, calm conditions can push readings lower than guidance. Updated model cycles and official observations through September 8 will refine the minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs show Moscow overnight lows on September 8–9 ranging from roughly 6–12 °C under variable cloud cover and light winds, producing closely matched market odds near 47 % for 0 °C or below versus 46.5 % for 10 °C or higher. Clear-sky radiative cooling can drop surface temperatures several degrees below air temperature after sunset, while even modest cloud cover or slight southerly advection limits that drop; ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts creates the observed uncertainty around the 7 °C outcome priced at 29.5 %. Historical September 9 minima average 9.2 °C, with the 3.1 °C record illustrating how quickly clear, calm conditions can push readings lower than guidance. Updated model cycles and official observations through September 8 will refine the minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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