Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 7 will reach approximately 6°C under cloudy skies with light rain and northwesterly winds of 7-12 m/s, moderating radiative cooling compared to clear conditions. This aligns with model consensus showing the daily low likely settling between 8-9°C at official stations, above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 9.5°C yet consistent with recent cooler advection. Trader positioning at 71.5% implied probability for 9°C and 25% for 8°C reflects these guidance details and the narrow uncertainty band around measurement thresholds, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent sharper model shifts before final observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 7?
9°C 88%
8°C 20%
7°C 19%
6°C 4.5%
$4,010 Vol.
$4,010 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
4%
7°C
19%
8°C
25%
9°C
72%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
9°C 88%
8°C 20%
7°C 19%
6°C 4.5%
$4,010 Vol.
$4,010 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
3°C or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$324 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$225 Vol.
4%
7°C
$368 Vol.
19%
8°C
$531 Vol.
25%
9°C
$640 Vol.
72%
10°C
$729 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$357 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 7 will reach approximately 6°C under cloudy skies with light rain and northwesterly winds of 7-12 m/s, moderating radiative cooling compared to clear conditions. This aligns with model consensus showing the daily low likely settling between 8-9°C at official stations, above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 9.5°C yet consistent with recent cooler advection. Trader positioning at 71.5% implied probability for 9°C and 25% for 8°C reflects these guidance details and the narrow uncertainty band around measurement thresholds, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent sharper model shifts before final observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$4,010End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 7 will reach approximately 6°C under cloudy skies with light rain and northwesterly winds of 7-12 m/s, moderating radiative cooling compared to clear conditions. This aligns with model consensus showing the daily low likely settling between 8-9°C at official stations, above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 9.5°C yet consistent with recent cooler advection. Trader positioning at 71.5% implied probability for 9°C and 25% for 8°C reflects these guidance details and the narrow uncertainty band around measurement thresholds, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent sharper model shifts before final observations resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,010End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center indicate Moscow's overnight minimum on September 7 will reach approximately 6°C under cloudy skies with light rain and northwesterly winds of 7-12 m/s, moderating radiative cooling compared to clear conditions. This aligns with model consensus showing the daily low likely settling between 8-9°C at official stations, above the 1991-2020 climatological average low of 9.5°C yet consistent with recent cooler advection. Trader positioning at 71.5% implied probability for 9°C and 25% for 8°C reflects these guidance details and the narrow uncertainty band around measurement thresholds, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent sharper model shifts before final observations resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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