Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate a narrow range for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 28, with consensus favoring 16–17°C as the most probable outcome. This reflects a stable late-summer air mass under light winds and variable cloud cover, which moderates nocturnal radiative cooling while limiting cold advection from the North Sea. Key differentiating factors include overnight dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing: clearer skies could allow brief dips toward 14–15°C, whereas increased humidity or light precipitation would support slightly higher minima near 18°C. Traders are weighting ensemble spread and short-range updates from the ECMWF and KNMI, as small shifts in these variables can resolve the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 28?
14°C 90%
15°C 90%
18°C 90%
19°C 90%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
9%
13°C
86%
14°C
90%
15°C
90%
16°C
46%
17°C
46%
18°C
90%
19°C
90%
20°C
20%
21°C
90%
22°C or higher
42%
14°C 90%
15°C 90%
18°C 90%
19°C 90%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
12°C or below
$27 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
86%
14°C
$0 Vol.
90%
15°C
$0 Vol.
90%
16°C
$0 Vol.
46%
17°C
$0 Vol.
46%
18°C
$0 Vol.
90%
19°C
$0 Vol.
90%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
90%
22°C or higher
$27 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate a narrow range for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 28, with consensus favoring 16–17°C as the most probable outcome. This reflects a stable late-summer air mass under light winds and variable cloud cover, which moderates nocturnal radiative cooling while limiting cold advection from the North Sea. Key differentiating factors include overnight dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing: clearer skies could allow brief dips toward 14–15°C, whereas increased humidity or light precipitation would support slightly higher minima near 18°C. Traders are weighting ensemble spread and short-range updates from the ECMWF and KNMI, as small shifts in these variables can resolve the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$55End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate a narrow range for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 28, with consensus favoring 16–17°C as the most probable outcome. This reflects a stable late-summer air mass under light winds and variable cloud cover, which moderates nocturnal radiative cooling while limiting cold advection from the North Sea. Key differentiating factors include overnight dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing: clearer skies could allow brief dips toward 14–15°C, whereas increased humidity or light precipitation would support slightly higher minima near 18°C. Traders are weighting ensemble spread and short-range updates from the ECMWF and KNMI, as small shifts in these variables can resolve the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$55End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate a narrow range for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 28, with consensus favoring 16–17°C as the most probable outcome. This reflects a stable late-summer air mass under light winds and variable cloud cover, which moderates nocturnal radiative cooling while limiting cold advection from the North Sea. Key differentiating factors include overnight dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing: clearer skies could allow brief dips toward 14–15°C, whereas increased humidity or light precipitation would support slightly higher minima near 18°C. Traders are weighting ensemble spread and short-range updates from the ECMWF and KNMI, as small shifts in these variables can resolve the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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