Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and European ensembles point to a minimum temperature near 16°C for Munich on August 30, driven by mild southwesterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal cooling under moderate humidity. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 12°C or below, suggesting traders are weighting tail risks from potential model spread, localized radiational cooling, or a sharper-than-expected boundary-layer decoupling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 12.6°C with occasional drops below 10°C, providing context for the elevated odds on cooler thresholds despite the consensus guidance. Updated model runs and official observations through the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 30?
12°C or below 35%
14°C 33%
15°C 30%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
35%
13°C
28%
14°C
33%
15°C
30%
16°C
26%
17°C
24%
18°C
14%
19°C
2%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
12°C or below 35%
14°C 33%
15°C 30%
16°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
35%
13°C
$10 Vol.
28%
14°C
$0 Vol.
33%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$17 Vol.
24%
18°C
$5 Vol.
14%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$5 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$16 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and European ensembles point to a minimum temperature near 16°C for Munich on August 30, driven by mild southwesterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal cooling under moderate humidity. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 12°C or below, suggesting traders are weighting tail risks from potential model spread, localized radiational cooling, or a sharper-than-expected boundary-layer decoupling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 12.6°C with occasional drops below 10°C, providing context for the elevated odds on cooler thresholds despite the consensus guidance. Updated model runs and official observations through the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$63End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and European ensembles point to a minimum temperature near 16°C for Munich on August 30, driven by mild southwesterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal cooling under moderate humidity. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 12°C or below, suggesting traders are weighting tail risks from potential model spread, localized radiational cooling, or a sharper-than-expected boundary-layer decoupling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 12.6°C with occasional drops below 10°C, providing context for the elevated odds on cooler thresholds despite the consensus guidance. Updated model runs and official observations through the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$63End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including GFS and European ensembles point to a minimum temperature near 16°C for Munich on August 30, driven by mild southwesterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and limited nocturnal cooling under moderate humidity. This places the outcome near the middle of the distribution, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (43%) to 12°C or below, suggesting traders are weighting tail risks from potential model spread, localized radiational cooling, or a sharper-than-expected boundary-layer decoupling. Historical climatology shows an average low of 12.6°C with occasional drops below 10°C, providing context for the elevated odds on cooler thresholds despite the consensus guidance. Updated model runs and official observations through the overnight period will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions