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Elections·Main Election

Republika Srpska Presidential Election

icon for Republika Srpska Presidential Election
Elections·Main Election

Republika Srpska Presidential Election

Savo Minić 60%

Branko Blanuša 37%

Jusuf Arifagić 3.1%

Begija Smajić 3.0%

Polymarket
NEW

Savo Minić 60%

Branko Blanuša 37%

Jusuf Arifagić 3.1%

Begija Smajić 3.0%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Savo Minić

Savo Minić

$589 Vol.

60%

icon for Branko Blanuša

Branko Blanuša

$443 Vol.

37%

icon for Jusuf Arifagić

Jusuf Arifagić

$119 Vol.

3%

icon for Begija Smajić

Begija Smajić

$108 Vol.

3%

icon for Ćamil Duraković

Ćamil Duraković

$108 Vol.

3%

icon for Marko Jorgić

Marko Jorgić

$81 Vol.

2%

icon for Bogdan Jovanović

Bogdan Jovanović

$45 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ramiz Salkić

Ramiz Salkić

$101 Vol.

<1%

icon for Igor Balukčić

Igor Balukčić

$101 Vol.

<1%

icon for Franjo Jukić

Franjo Jukić

$101 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ivo Kamenjašević

Ivo Kamenjašević

$81 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ivan Begić

Ivan Begić

$79 Vol.

<1%

General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count. Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count. If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Savo Minić, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) nominee and current prime minister, leads trader consensus at 60% for the October 4, 2026, Republika Srpska presidential election due to unified backing from the ruling coalition, including partners like United Srpska and the Socialist Party. Incumbent SNSD president Siniša Karan is not seeking re-election, shifting the focus to Minić's established role in entity governance and the party's historical dominance in Serb-majority voting. Branko Blanuša of the main opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS) sits at 36.5%, reflecting limited recent momentum despite prior close contests. Lower-probability candidates, including Bosniak and Croat representatives such as Ćamil Duraković and Ramiz Salkić, align with the entity's ethnic vice-presidency structure and minimal standalone viability. No major campaign developments have altered positioning since summer coalition agreements.

General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count.

Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count.

If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,954
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 2:08 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.izbori.ba/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count. Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count. If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count. Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count. If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Savo Minić, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) nominee and current prime minister, leads trader consensus at 60% for the October 4, 2026, Republika Srpska presidential election due to unified backing from the ruling coalition, including partners like United Srpska and the Socialist Party. Incumbent SNSD president Siniša Karan is not seeking re-election, shifting the focus to Minić's established role in entity governance and the party's historical dominance in Serb-majority voting. Branko Blanuša of the main opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS) sits at 36.5%, reflecting limited recent momentum despite prior close contests. Lower-probability candidates, including Bosniak and Croat representatives such as Ćamil Duraković and Ramiz Salkić, align with the entity's ethnic vice-presidency structure and minimal standalone viability. No major campaign developments have altered positioning since summer coalition agreements.

General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count.

Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count.

If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,954
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 2:08 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.izbori.ba/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count. Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count. If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republika Srpska Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Savo Minić" at 60%, followed by "Branko Blanuša" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Republika Srpska Presidential Election" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Republika Srpska Presidential Election," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republika Srpska Presidential Election" is "Savo Minić" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Branko Blanuša" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republika Srpska Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.