**Recent Swedish polling shows Moderaterna (M) support hovering near 17%, creating tight balance around the 17% threshold.** As of mid-to-late August 2026, aggregates place the party at roughly 17.4–17.6%, with individual surveys ranging from 16.8% (Demoskop) to 18.3% (Novus). This reflects limited momentum for the incumbent Moderate-led Tidö government despite campaign emphasis on crime, security, immigration, and household finances, while the centre-left opposition bloc maintains a roughly 10-point lead. M has remained below its 19.1% 2022 result for multiple months, constrained by the broader bloc's weakness—including Liberals polling below the 4% Riksdag threshold—and modest gains for coalition partners like the Christian Democrats. With the September 13 election weeks away, final voter shifts on economic or security issues, turnout patterns, or late-campaign events could determine whether Moderaterna finishes above or below 17%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
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Sep 12, 2026
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling shows Moderaterna (M) support hovering near 17%, creating tight balance around the 17% threshold.** As of mid-to-late August 2026, aggregates place the party at roughly 17.4–17.6%, with individual surveys ranging from 16.8% (Demoskop) to 18.3% (Novus). This reflects limited momentum for the incumbent Moderate-led Tidö government despite campaign emphasis on crime, security, immigration, and household finances, while the centre-left opposition bloc maintains a roughly 10-point lead. M has remained below its 19.1% 2022 result for multiple months, constrained by the broader bloc's weakness—including Liberals polling below the 4% Riksdag threshold—and modest gains for coalition partners like the Christian Democrats. With the September 13 election weeks away, final voter shifts on economic or security issues, turnout patterns, or late-campaign events could determine whether Moderaterna finishes above or below 17%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$649End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling shows Moderaterna (M) support hovering near 17%, creating tight balance around the 17% threshold.** As of mid-to-late August 2026, aggregates place the party at roughly 17.4–17.6%, with individual surveys ranging from 16.8% (Demoskop) to 18.3% (Novus). This reflects limited momentum for the incumbent Moderate-led Tidö government despite campaign emphasis on crime, security, immigration, and household finances, while the centre-left opposition bloc maintains a roughly 10-point lead. M has remained below its 19.1% 2022 result for multiple months, constrained by the broader bloc's weakness—including Liberals polling below the 4% Riksdag threshold—and modest gains for coalition partners like the Christian Democrats. With the September 13 election weeks away, final voter shifts on economic or security issues, turnout patterns, or late-campaign events could determine whether Moderaterna finishes above or below 17%.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$649End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish polling shows Moderaterna (M) support hovering near 17%, creating tight balance around the 17% threshold.** As of mid-to-late August 2026, aggregates place the party at roughly 17.4–17.6%, with individual surveys ranging from 16.8% (Demoskop) to 18.3% (Novus). This reflects limited momentum for the incumbent Moderate-led Tidö government despite campaign emphasis on crime, security, immigration, and household finances, while the centre-left opposition bloc maintains a roughly 10-point lead. M has remained below its 19.1% 2022 result for multiple months, constrained by the broader bloc's weakness—including Liberals polling below the 4% Riksdag threshold—and modest gains for coalition partners like the Christian Democrats. With the September 13 election weeks away, final voter shifts on economic or security issues, turnout patterns, or late-campaign events could determine whether Moderaterna finishes above or below 17%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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