Recent polling averages place the AfD at 41–43% in Saxony-Anhalt ahead of the September 6, 2026, Landtag election, well ahead of the CDU at 22–24% and with smaller parties such as the SPD, Greens, BSW, and FDP clustered near or below the 5% threshold. Under the mixed-member proportional system for the 83-seat parliament, an absolute majority requires roughly 42 seats; AfD support in the low-to-mid 40s frequently translates to 39–41 seats when minor parties clear the threshold, though simultaneous shortfalls by several smaller parties could produce overhang effects that tip the balance. Trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% probability for “No” tracks these seat-projection models, which show the AfD close to but typically short of a majority absent an unusually fragmented outcome. No major polling shifts or campaign developments in the past month have altered this narrow margin.