Recent Brazilian polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with Lula typically at 36-43% and Flávio at 31-37% across firms including Quaest, Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData. Momentum for the Liberal Party candidate stems from right-wing base mobilization ahead of the October 4 first round, Supreme Court controversies energizing opposition voters, and tightening runoff simulations where Flávio has posted numerical leads or ties in several surveys. Traders assign the highest probability to a 39%+ share, consistent with expectations of continued gains or favorable turnout dynamics in battleground regions, while still pricing meaningful risk of a lower result given persistent undecided voters and competing conservative candidacies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated39%+ 40%
36-39% 18%
30-33% 14%
33-36% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
13%
30-33%
14%
33-36%
14%
36-39%
18%
39%+
40%
39%+ 40%
36-39% 18%
30-33% 14%
33-36% 14%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
$0 Vol.
13%
30-33%
$0 Vol.
14%
33-36%
$0 Vol.
14%
36-39%
$0 Vol.
18%
39%+
$20 Vol.
40%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with Lula typically at 36-43% and Flávio at 31-37% across firms including Quaest, Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData. Momentum for the Liberal Party candidate stems from right-wing base mobilization ahead of the October 4 first round, Supreme Court controversies energizing opposition voters, and tightening runoff simulations where Flávio has posted numerical leads or ties in several surveys. Traders assign the highest probability to a 39%+ share, consistent with expectations of continued gains or favorable turnout dynamics in battleground regions, while still pricing meaningful risk of a lower result given persistent undecided voters and competing conservative candidacies.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent Brazilian polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with Lula typically at 36-43% and Flávio at 31-37% across firms including Quaest, Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData. Momentum for the Liberal Party candidate stems from right-wing base mobilization ahead of the October 4 first round, Supreme Court controversies energizing opposition voters, and tightening runoff simulations where Flávio has posted numerical leads or ties in several surveys. Traders assign the highest probability to a 39%+ share, consistent with expectations of continued gains or favorable turnout dynamics in battleground regions, while still pricing meaningful risk of a lower result given persistent undecided voters and competing conservative candidacies.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Brazilian polling from mid-September shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) narrowing the first-round gap with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with Lula typically at 36-43% and Flávio at 31-37% across firms including Quaest, Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and PoderData. Momentum for the Liberal Party candidate stems from right-wing base mobilization ahead of the October 4 first round, Supreme Court controversies energizing opposition voters, and tightening runoff simulations where Flávio has posted numerical leads or ties in several surveys. Traders assign the highest probability to a 39%+ share, consistent with expectations of continued gains or favorable turnout dynamics in battleground regions, while still pricing meaningful risk of a lower result given persistent undecided voters and competing conservative candidacies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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