Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos of the Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-6% outcome. His support has remained stable in that band across multiple surveys since formalizing his candidacy in July and August, with stronger numbers among younger voters but limited broader penetration. The Supreme Electoral Court validated his registration on September 10 after briefly suspending aspects of his digital campaign over reporting requirements for social media profiles, allowing renewed access to electoral funds and media appearances. Santos positions his pragmatic right-wing platform—emphasizing security, reduced state intervention, and criticism of both the incumbent Workers’ Party and the main opposition contender—as an alternative to the leading candidates, though this has not yet produced measurable separation from other minor right-leaning names in national samples. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of free broadcast time could influence turnout dynamics among his core demographic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2-4% 43%
4-6% 34%
8%+ 12%
<2% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
12%
2-4%
43%
4-6%
34%
6-8%
12%
8%+
12%
2-4% 43%
4-6% 34%
8%+ 12%
<2% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$0 Vol.
12%
2-4%
$263 Vol.
43%
4-6%
$40 Vol.
34%
6-8%
$0 Vol.
12%
8%+
$23 Vol.
12%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos of the Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-6% outcome. His support has remained stable in that band across multiple surveys since formalizing his candidacy in July and August, with stronger numbers among younger voters but limited broader penetration. The Supreme Electoral Court validated his registration on September 10 after briefly suspending aspects of his digital campaign over reporting requirements for social media profiles, allowing renewed access to electoral funds and media appearances. Santos positions his pragmatic right-wing platform—emphasizing security, reduced state intervention, and criticism of both the incumbent Workers’ Party and the main opposition contender—as an alternative to the leading candidates, though this has not yet produced measurable separation from other minor right-leaning names in national samples. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of free broadcast time could influence turnout dynamics among his core demographic.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$326End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos of the Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-6% outcome. His support has remained stable in that band across multiple surveys since formalizing his candidacy in July and August, with stronger numbers among younger voters but limited broader penetration. The Supreme Electoral Court validated his registration on September 10 after briefly suspending aspects of his digital campaign over reporting requirements for social media profiles, allowing renewed access to electoral funds and media appearances. Santos positions his pragmatic right-wing platform—emphasizing security, reduced state intervention, and criticism of both the incumbent Workers’ Party and the main opposition contender—as an alternative to the leading candidates, though this has not yet produced measurable separation from other minor right-leaning names in national samples. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of free broadcast time could influence turnout dynamics among his core demographic.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$326End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates place Renan Santos of the Missão party in the low single digits for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability to a 2-6% outcome. His support has remained stable in that band across multiple surveys since formalizing his candidacy in July and August, with stronger numbers among younger voters but limited broader penetration. The Supreme Electoral Court validated his registration on September 10 after briefly suspending aspects of his digital campaign over reporting requirements for social media profiles, allowing renewed access to electoral funds and media appearances. Santos positions his pragmatic right-wing platform—emphasizing security, reduced state intervention, and criticism of both the incumbent Workers’ Party and the main opposition contender—as an alternative to the leading candidates, though this has not yet produced measurable separation from other minor right-leaning names in national samples. Upcoming debates and the final weeks of free broadcast time could influence turnout dynamics among his core demographic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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